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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2465)	5/22/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

The earnings estimates for each stock in the group were updated yesterday using data from Zacks, as posted on the internet. Then using yesterday's closing prices, the PE for this fiscal year and next fiscal year can be computed for each stock in the group. Finally, to make a comparison for the 2 year earnings period, the earnings for 2 years are summed and a PE computed using yesterdays closing prices. A corresponding 2 year PE is also computed. This tabular information is shown in the following table. Several observations can be made from the table - a few of which are listed below. For next years earnings, 3 stocks have no available estimates and 2 or the stocks, FSII and WFR have negative earnings projections. Based on the fact that FSII has been one of the better performing stocks lately, can an earnings revision be far behind? The sum of the group earnings for this year at ($0.98) are still in negative territory. This is a big improvement, however, from 3 weeks ago when the number was ($4.02) and 3 weeks prior to that when the number was ($5.10). There has been a "quickening" in performance upgrades during the last 3 weeks. There is a good chance the estimate may go into positive territory in the next 3 weeks for the first time in a very long time. Just to list another checkpoint to illustrate how far the recovery has progressed since the first of the year, on 15 January, this year's earnings for the group was estimated at ($7.03) and next year's earnings was estimated at $20.60. Using next years earning, the projected group PE is 22. The last column in the table computes a number by taking the sum of earnings for the 2 years - then dividing this number in half - and then dividing this number into yesterday's closing price. Based on this computation, the group PE is 47. The table is sorted by descending value in terms of the sum of the 2 years earnings for each stock. Based on this method, NVLS sits in the top spot. Directly to the right of this column, this number can be compared to the 2 year PE, or 24 for NVLS. Scanning down the 2 year PE column, MASK jumps out at you with a 2 year PE of 11. MASK is projecting solid earnings for both years and yet is selling at a relatively low price. Only 2 other stocks in the group, IMSC and AFLX, have 2 year PEs under 20. 05/21/99 SUM EARNINGS EST CLOSE P/E 2 YEAR 2 YEAR SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR PRICE CURR YR NEXT YR EARN PE NVLS 1.54 2.98 53.25 35 18 4.52 24 TER 1.63 2.58 54.06 33 21 4.21 26 VECO 1.53 2.25 35.63 23 16 3.78 19 COHU 1.17 2.24 30.88 26 14 3.41 18 AMAT 1.08 2.20 59.56 55 27 3.28 36 DPMI 1.04 1.76 43.19 42 25 2.80 31 WJ 0.90 1.75 25.94 29 15 2.65 20 MASK 1.08 1.27 13.50 13 11 2.35 11 KLAC 0.69 1.63 49.25 71 30 2.32 42 ETEC 0.73 1.42 28.50 39 20 2.15 27 ASML 0.36 1.40 44.56 124 32 1.76 51 PLAB 0.58 1.10 23.06 40 21 1.68 27 ATMI 0.54 1.09 23.63 44 22 1.63 29 IMSC 0.63 0.82 11.00 17 13 1.45 15 HELX 0.38 0.93 18.00 47 19 1.31 27 ASYT -0.05 1.34 19.56 15 1.29 30 CYMI 0.04 1.02 21.31 533 21 1.06 40 BRKS 0.04 0.87 21.13 528 24 0.91 46 CMOS -0.47 1.20 30.38 25 0.73 83 KLIC -0.55 1.24 22.31 18 0.69 65 NANO 0.03 0.65 7.00 233 11 0.68 21 PHTN 0.04 0.55 9.44 236 17 0.59 32 AFLX -0.20 0.50 2.31 5 0.30 15 UTEK -0.16 0.45 13.56 30 0.29 94 LTXX -0.21 0.36 7.69 21 0.15 103 EGLS -0.56 0.58 15.25 26 0.02 1525 LRCX -1.65 1.58 30.56 19 -0.07 SFLX -0.23 0.15 3.63 24 -0.08 PRIA -0.78 0.68 28.13 41 -0.10 SMTL -0.47 0.35 8.94 26 -0.12 MTSN -0.19 7.13 -0.19 SVGI -0.80 0.61 14.88 24 -0.19 ASEC -0.29 1.06 -0.29 GSNX -1.02 0.58 13.88 24 -0.44 MICN -0.47 11.00 -0.47 SFAM -0.74 0.22 14.81 67 -0.52 CFMT -1.15 0.16 8.69 54 -0.99 TGAL -1.07 0.06 3.63 61 -1.01 FSII -0.99 -0.34 8.44 -1.33 WFR -2.96 -0.88 7.94 -3.84 TOTALS -0.98 37.35 846.67 22 36.37 47