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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40182)	5/22/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; Well as we concluded not many people would have the time to do what I do , and I doubt even those who do would adopt my style, actually I use several forms of TA , along with doing a running count of the A/Ds during the day. As far as a major move my system doesn't tell me how much the short term move is going to be, only taht it's run it's momentum just about to it's limit, and will reverse sometimes the moves are not that much , other times they are good. It's mostly just a Mo Mo system and depends a lot on the more recent past patterns , I think TA on an index loses it's effective as you take it back in time. The more recent patterns are the best I like a pure Momentum indicator (12), and MACD 8-17-9 for the short term trades , checking several time frames from 60 min to 5min, that combined with watching the Head ( top caps in the index ) you get use to when she is running out of steam , in either direction, It's fast & If I don't catch her before she rolls over very much then I wait for the other side. It's easy to not be watching when the roll over happens and I'v missed getting in a lot of good plays, but not knowing how it might move I seldom try to chase it, buying or shorting mid stream can be disappointing. In real time you have to take in account the spreads, particularly on the short side. As I don't often get shares to short unless I do a market order and being in front of the curve a bit helps there, once the roll over starts the spiders often skew both in price and the spreads open up. The market makers are not dummies. I'm trying to get a handle on a longer term trading style, and have made some progress using the DMAs of 10-20-200 and how they relate to one another. So far it seems to work but I haven't put a lot of my faith in it as yet. A bullish situation is when the % of 10s is exceeding the 20s and the 20s exceeding the 200s.., when that reverses say the 200s are going up but the 10s fall below the 20s and the 20s fall below the 200s she is running out of steam. ------------------ I like to see conformation of several signals including the TA before I make a bet. If the DMAs are negative as they now are then I'm more prone to try to catch a bounce to short, more than a dip to buy, if the DMAs get going the other way I look more for dips , how strong or weak the DMAs are and also the A/D count "change" may have me buying dips even in a slight down trend or shorting in an uptrend , but that takes one getting use to their own system. -------------------- It's so time comsuming I don't try to play options any more, but I do leverage via margin, I think option players need to specialize, well we all do, as there are several ways to skin the cat, but trying to skin it several ways at once don't work out too good. Jim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40182)	5/22/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill the sector webs (the XL*) has more to do with relative fundamentals and recent trading pattern. As they have a substantial basket of stocks but not containing all the SPX or even the OEX it is relative less prone to program trading. options.nasdaq-amex.com It is important to mention that I am getting in and out for a 3/4 to 1 point move on both the short side or long side. For example I wanted to short XLK at 38 11/16 and missed it by 1/64. (no not 1/16 <G>)two days ago. intended to move it to 38 5/8 but was to late. It closed Friday at 37 1/2 I think. The QQQ is much more liquid and volatile. I find those instruments relative easy to trade. those are my 2 cents. BWDIK Haim