To: The O who wrote (6014 ) 5/22/1999 6:30:00 PM From: BillCh Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 28311
30 days hath September, April , June and November April Web Traffic Was Flat, Generating Rival Theories By JASON FRY and TIMOTHY HANRAHAN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL INTERACTIVE EDITION Forget interpretation for a moment. Here's the facts: Using figures from Web-measurement firm Media Metrix, the number of unique visitors to each of the top 25 Web sites, added together, fell 0.4% to 64.97 million in April, down from 65.25 million the previous month. What on earth does that mean? Isn't the Web growing exponentially, adding scores of children and students and elderly folks and people in less-industrialized countries every minute of every day in less time than you can say, "hotly anticipated IPO"? How can the number of visitors to the premier Web destinations possibly be dropping? Publishers and Web experts differed on what the lesson might be. One camp holds that there's no lesson at all: The methodology may be faulty, and even it isn't, a 0.4-percent dip is so small that it can safely be considered noise, not signal. Also, Media Metrix points out, there was one fewer work day in April than in March, and no college basketball tournament to drive sports site visits. Another camp has suggested that the age of portals, which dominate the Top 25, may be passing: Web users are becoming more sophisticated and seeking out and settling at more-narrowly tailored sites than the all-in-one portals. And indeed, the likes of iVillage and Women.com did see large gains in traffic in April, Media Metrix found. (Maybe. But it would be truly surprising if those two sites weren't registering big gains -- they're a lot newer than the likes of Yahoo! and Excite, and they've been getting a ton of press coverage recently.) The most compelling argument comes from a third camp: Web traffic is beginning to obey a seasonal law that's well-known to companies that track TV viewership. That law is that when the weather gets warm and daylight savings time kicks in, people in northern climes are more likely to turn off the TV and go outside. This third theory is backed up by another Media Metrix figure. The total "universe" -- no double-counting -- of Web users edged down to 61.12 million in April from 61.58 million in March. Portals slumped, but so did other sites. The workday, alas, doesn't get shorter just because it's nice outside, so the dip in traffic would logically seem to be coming from a slowdown in surfing from home. The sudden influence of home usage on overall traffic -- and its mirroring of TV patterns -- should serve as a wake-up call to those Baby Bells and cable-TV companies (at least the ones that haven't been bought by AT&T). A lot of them are still hemming and hawing about how they haven't seen enough demand to roll out high-speed Internet access to homes at anything above a glacial pace. Oddly enough, proof that those consumers are out there may be that in April there were less of them.