To: REH who wrote (2770 ) 5/27/1999 10:17:00 AM From: REH Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2911
Healthcare Information Systems by Michael W. Knepper (http://www.punkziegel.com/) Health Care Goes Online There remain a myriad of information gaps in health care that are being bridged with emerging technologies and consulting services. Last year at this time we looked into our crystal ball and attempted to discern the trends that would revolutionize, or at least help to accelerate, the digitization of health care. The trends we identified included the use of the Internet to accelerate connectivity between consumers, payors, providers and drug companies, and the rapidly growing momentum within emerging medical management solutions. Since our last conference, we have spoken with some 300 HCIS companies as well as dozens of traditional outsiders to HCIS that are serious about entering the sector. The outsiders include big-cap drug companies, multi-billion dollar consulting companies, technology conglomerates, online content companies and even several former defense contractors. This year we are pleased to report that our crystal ball was not cloudy. In fact, the use of the Internet in health care today is years ahead of what we thought would be possible at this point. Today, we see a number of companies successfully interconnecting payors and providers, several others rapidly selling online wellness services to large employers and insurers, and one looping in the mass health care consumer market with over 10 million server hits per month. In our opinion, this is the tip of the iceberg. A recent study by Cyber Dialogue, Inc. demonstrates the potential power of the Internet health care consumer. According to that report, approximately 17 million U.S. adults used the Internet in the 12 months ended July 1998 to access health care information. The study expects the number of online health care consumers to grow to 30 million by July 2000. Of this group, 30% want to purchase medical supplies over the Internet, 23% want over-the-counter drugs, 30% want prescription drugs, and 33% want vitamins and supplements. Together these demand figures imply a potential market in medical product sales of $4 billion by 2001, while the information services market could grow to $250 million by 2000, up from nearly zero three years ago. The Internet, in our opinion, will accelerate the HCIS industry's growth rate from 15% per year on average to perhaps 25%-30% through faster adoption of existing technologies as well as the creation of new markets, such as direct-to-consumer marketing and medical management. Further down the road, this also opens up world health care markets to U.S. medical information. Also playing a significant role in HCIS's growth are the emerging architectures and health care messaging standards. These architectures enable software to be tailored at low cost per user, while standards facilitate cost effective connectivity between health care participants. Meanwhile, contract signings for core enterprise systems are growing at a 30%+ rate, as newly consolidated providers and payors begin to take advantage of scale. While still perhaps one or two years out, we expect these solutions to also be Internet enabled in the near future, with certain information being directly accessible by the online health care consumer. The only question to which our crystal ball has not given us a definitive answer is the extent to which the Y2k problem will impact health care spending in certain areas. Vendors offering software patches are not likely to be substantially impacted. Those offering upgrades through newer versions that are based on newer architectures as part of the standard maintenance agreement are likely to be rewarded with happy customers and add-on consulting, software and hardware sales. Those offering new versions at discounted rates are likely to lose existing clients to others on the market with comparable solutions. We may be able to gauge the impact of Y2k by mid-1999 as scheduling systems are tested in live situations. One trend, however, is clear: the information solutions that offer high, tangible and near-term returns on investments are being adopted at a significant rate. As one company CEO states, when choosing between food and air, the choice is pretty clear. Finally, it is now clear to us that the role of consulting services in health care is growing. As margins for payors and providers continue to decline, the need is intensifying for client-specific integration and process re-engineering solutions that bridge the gaps left by existing software solutions. Since traditional HCIS software vendors climb the learning curve for the marketing of these services, and as existing IT Services companies diversify out of Y2k, we expect health care to be a hot industry for these services. Punk, Ziegel & Company 520 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10022 (212) 308-9494