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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (45306)	5/22/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Where are we going? Ok...Everyone wants a higher OSX...and all the "predicting and analysis" can at best try to predict a trend. The reality is that the price of crude is going to dictate the price of the stocks. Plain and simple. It seems half the market is trading our sector with the idea that crude has come too far too fast...and OPEC will cheat themselves back to oblivion and we've had nothing but another "blip"...The other half of the market is slowly facing the possible scenario that OPEC won't cheat and world demand will continue to rise...creating an explosive price rise before the end of the year. It seems every week we get new "numbers" that offer an argument for each side...Until API and EIA numbers both show bullish numbers consistently...we'll probably tread water. Probably the most important factor that is being conveniently brushed aside is the "real" size of the "worldwide glut". Does it really exist? Did the oil that constitutes the glut ever get pumped out of the ground? If it didn't and the numbers are off...another month or two of strong OPEC compliance and improving demand and oil prices could roar upward with a vengeance. My gut feeling is we are closer to this scenario than most are willing to accept. If this observation is correct...what will it take for the markets to accept the premise that there isn't a glut and to value crude accordingly? Curious as to other's thoughts. Dave

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (45306)	5/22/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

George- When I look at the daily chart on July crude from the recent peak, I am troubled by what appears to me to be a decline that wants to evolve towards 16ish in a 2 step fashion. The first step seems to be an ABC down to 17.35ish. This was then followed by a blip up into the mid 18's trying to regain the high and failing... The second step then undercut the bottom of the first step by getting into the 16's BUT was likely only the A of an eventual ABC. If so, we are probably now doing the B of the second step into say 18ish to be followed by a C down below last week's low tic....If my interpretation is correct. the OSX may soon retrace a bit in concert with a fall in crude but stay above 70 this time before turning upwards again on its journey to 84ish...my 2c