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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (30609)5/22/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 152472
 
Ramsey,

That was a very enjoyable post! Reading it made me realize I should clarify a couple things.

When I referred to analysts, I should have clarified that I respect those who build financial models that lead them to their earnings estimates. I've never constructed such a model and my hat is off to those who do so with a great degree of integrity.

By the way, I've seen some great analysts' models in some online threads but they were done by people who don't earn a living as analysts. I have no less respect for great analysts who use their craft to enhance their own personal investments than for the so-called pros.

Your comment that a book-to-bill ratio shouldn't be used to create a revenue projection is on target, of course. I would guess that enough factors added to that ratio could help generate a revenue estimate, but by itself it's meaningless. My comments about the ratio in me earlier post might have accidentally been misleading.

--Mike Buckley



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (30609)5/23/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: engineer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
The BTB was for the ASICS and it was not meaningless. It means alot to a semiconductor sector guy. This means they have to get the produciton levels up to meet demand. This means booking more silicon at the fab next (this) quarter. Now if they increase the revenue and production to meet the 1.7 BTB and then report and good BTB next quarter, then this means that they are experiencing wild growth. Most Semis keep BTB just barely postive, like 1.1 to 1.2. Go look at VLSI, LSI, TI, etc if they still publish it.