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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: doc who wrote (21989)	5/23/1999 7:44:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 29386

Doc, Firstly, the charts on ANCR looks very good for the future, with both the daily and weekly charts producing HIGHER HIGHS and HIGHER LOWs, but that does not mean it will go strait up. There is a strong resistance at the 12 range which was a peak back in 1997, and once that is broken to the upside the next resistance line is in the 20 range. Right now ANCR is going parabolic, and when that happens it is really hard to predict the top, like trying to pick the top of the internets. One thing that I noticed was that FRIDAY's upmove was on lower volume, and if the volume continues to decrease this strong upmove should start topping off for the short-term. I also use the MACD-Histogram, which shows the peaks are also getting higher, which implies that ANCR is healthy. The first support line is 9 and yes I am still looking for some sort of retracement to the 8-9 area, if ANCR stalls in the 11-12 range. A pullback to the 8-9 area should be taken as another buying opportunity and is actually healthy for the stock, not a negative. It would become negative if the pullback gets worse than the 8-9 range. I will have to rethink my position about a retracement to 8-9 if ANCR significantly breaks above 12, which for now is less likely, but still possible. I noticed from reading the thread that Brocade is coming out with their IPO early next week. Depending on how the market views their technology vs. ANCR's, it is a possibility that if the Brocade IPO does well it could boost ANCR over 12. Subjectively, if ANCR does not break 12 with the good BROCADE IPO performance, that would support a pullback in the near future. From a larger perspective, the overall market is weakening and is on the verge of correcting. If anyone remembers 1996, the small caps were running up very hard just before the overall market corrected. It is a common belief that the last sectors to run before a correction are the small caps and cyclicals stocks, which is what is occuring now. Per my cycle analysis, we are coming to a weak period for the overall market which should last until early/mid JULY. Thereafter the market should have another upswing. Once ANCR peaks, I suspect a consolidating period with the next strong upswing arriving in JULY. Dont get me wrong about ANCR, since I am bullish on ANCR for the longterm, since Im a firm believer that with the coming of age of the internet the demand for fibre channel technology will continue to grow. Seeya