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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (9588)	5/23/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

First of all we need to recognize that the course we are on offers little hope for success. I think the jury is still out on that one. However, the chances of a quick success have basically been made moot. Too many military options have been taken off the table by NATO, like ground forces, and have provided Milo the necessary negotiation leverage to prolong the agony. If NATO presents a lack of will or a fear of casualties, Milo can play upon that fear and generate dissent among the 19 NATO participants. Milo doesn't have to make military/political decisions by consensus, NATO does. Engaging Milosovic in dialogue would be a good starting point. I assume you are well-versed on the history of "dialogue" between Milo, the UN, US, and NATO. It has been going on for years now and very little has been gained. Milo and his aggressive nationalist policies have been at the heart of this problem. However, without a sympathetic and willing Serbian public, looking for a rallying point to distract them from their economic problems, Milo would have not been able to perpetrate his agenda. Milo cannot come out of this with his political system fully intact and able to claim a victory against NATO. He may still remain in power, but it must be in an extemely weakened political capacity that makes it possble for a popularly elected opponent to challenge and assume control of the gov't. These types of scenarios take more time that just blasting the hell out of them (more than we currently are), but over time patience wears thin among the domestic population and they just want peace and stability and an end to the bombing. Eventually, they will consider Milo to be the impediment to peace and that will empower his opponents. What's simplistic is to believe that throwing bombs at Yugoslovia will force them to give up their homeland. Their homeland is not Kosovo. There homeland and the heart of the Serbian nation is Montenegro. Kosovo is a site of profound meaning because of the battle that was fought there against the Turks. However, even this battle has taken mythological proportions since Serbs have been led to believe that they were made martyrs by their defeat during this battle. However, the Serbs were not defeated at Kosovo. The battle was essentially a draw because the Turkish forces withdrew. The reason they withdrew is that their Sultan was killed during the battle, and one of his sons (both were at the battle) summoned his brother under the pretext of discussing the battle, but instead immediately had his btother executed so that he would have no rival to his power. The new Sultan then withdrew back to Turkey to consilodate his local powerbase. It was years before the Turks again aggressed against the Serbs, and then many of the Serbian principalities allied with the Turks in order to gain an ally against their rival Serb clans. Now to deal with today, there are many Eastern Orthodox holy sites in Kosovo (as also exists several Turkish monuments). But most of these are not located in areas that were populated by Albanians (according to my readings). There is no reason that these holy sites can't be placed under international protection and the Serbian people granted full access to them. Afterall, they existed for centuries and the Kosovar Albanians failed to threaten them. We have to get over this idea that Kosovo is solely the homeland of Serbs. This is a lie that Serbia is trying to feed the world and that Milo has been stirring up the Serbian population with for the past 11 years+. The area never seemed to hold the appeal that Jerusalem has held for Jews, who have sought to live there and make it their home. Serbs have left Kosovo for jobs in the big city (not because of Albanian oppression as Milo would have you believe) and the gov't NEVER spent the money necessary to economically develop the region in order to entice a Serbian presence. Instead, Milo left it undeveloped, undereducated, and unrepresented in the Federal Gov't. It is little wonder the Kosovars were getting sick of Serbian domination. This is what has to be resolved. In sum, Milo will eventually have to go. Serbia will require economic aid and this is the leverage that NATO holds over them. The longer he stays and remains obstinate, the more their economy will suffer and the longer it will take to recover. Serbia may be left economically and militarily vulnerable to Croatia and Bosnia and Yugoslavia "could" be reformed at the distinct disadvantage of Serbs. The FRY dissolved primarily due to Milo's policies. With him gone, and with the passage of time, there could be a reunification of Yugoslavia into a loose confederation that would permit a reconstruction of the old economic ties that would provide the whole with more benefits than each independent state currently enjoys. However, this goal would be 10-20 years away, minimum. There has be a large amount of healing done first. Just my opinion. Regards, Ron