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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SDR-SI who wrote (6978)	5/23/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: cm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

When It Comes To WAVX, I'm Not A Leader... I'm a follower. I choose to follow George Gilder, the noted futurist and author who's on the WAVX board; and who wrote a wonderful book called LIFE AFTER TELEVISION which had an entire chapter devoted to WAVX; and who has reinforced his positive opinions of WAVX through posts on SI. I choose to follow InfoWorld's Bob Metcalfe, the man who invented Ethernet, when he talks about bogus privacy issues--after all, MC and VISA know where I spend my money--and the coming "pay-as-you-go" Web. I choose to follow the money: $23 million in a private placement doesn't just come out of nowhere. If the company's fortunes were as bad some might indicate--and, hey, they have had their share of missteps and cash crunches, etc--I doubt that they would have been able to raise much more than $5 million. (I have a strange theory: I believe $5 million is always out there... no matter what the concept... especially if you can relate it, even indirectly, to .com-land.) I also follow AOL's money. I choose to follow HP, an organization that has long been known for innovation AND very un-savvy marketing. But, now, mirabile dictu, HP, a WAVX partner for trusted-client security, is now doing a pretty fine job of MARKETING. HP was a critical endorsement for the WAVX vision. Having some knowledge of HP, I took this endorsement as a wonderful development. I choose to follow the trends. Digital television is going to blow us all away. And the Sarnoff/Fantastic Corporation inTelecast deal is far more than VAPORWARE friends. Sarnoff is one of the most respected research organizations going. And I choose to believe SS when he says that this "inTelecast" is ready to go TODAY. Further, in following developments relative to DTV, I am also following the concerns of broadcasters about how to tap this huge new market and put out their silver cups to catch the water from new revenue streams. I choose to follow the anxieties of PC OEMs, another group that I am fairly familiar with. Dell is now ruminating on the possibility of distributing FREE PCs in exchange for monthly ISP service. The trend is to zero among PC OEMs. Margins are collapsing by the day. Last year, a company I did marketing for introduced the first sub-$500 PC. Now, in some quarters, like www.pcfreecomputers.com, that seems expensive. We are witnessing the death of PCs... Intel's Andy Grove has said as much in a recent interview. We are at the early phases of "pervasive computing"... information appliances, etc. PCs will continue, of course, but be transformed into utilities. (And when you don't pay your PC utility bill, the WaveMeter can shut your system off.) Thus, PC OEMs are VERY interested in finding new revenue models. It ain't the PC that counts, it's the information, the stock quotes, the access, the digital libraries, the images, the movies, the chat, the events, the community... all of which can be metered and charged for. I choose to follow the ever-widening supply chain, now including links to ATML among others. In following the links, for example, to HAUP (and WAVO) and SIGM (and AOL set-top boxes for AOL TV), you will find intriguing bits offered by various thread-izens. Finally, I choose to follow the intelligence of posters here and on RB. I was introduced to WAVX by Weby. And as I have brought up doubts and questions--and shown my OWN ignorance--I have found this "community" to be patient (with me) and highly informed. THEIR wisdom does not insulate me from losing money here. Nor does it allow me to be lazy and turn a blind eye to the risks WHICH ARE REAL. But, in all of my DD-ing, I've never found a better group... with more valuable contributors covering such a wide area of topics. Period. My way of saying thanks. It is good to follow... Regards, c m

To: SDR-SI who wrote (6978)	5/23/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: SDR-SI	Respond to of 11417

Oliver: To provide you with other viewpoints, each containing at least some new information for your consideration, I would recommend that you look at the following Raging Bull posts in answer to some of your points and concerns: * * * * * * * * * * By: struther Reply To: None Sunday, 23 May 1999 at 1:18 AM EDT Post #37989 of 38005 Oliver's Post A very well written post that raising questions that anyone that read the SEC report would ask. My response is that past performance does not indicate future returns. Comparing the past R&D phase to the future deployment phase is like comparing apples to oranges. As for clawing back from the $60M deficit in shareholders equity, I say no problem. For one thing, with a million chips deployed, that's only $6 in profit per chip. We talking a high margin business here, so that is not unreasonable (probably only $10 in gross revenue). Or to think of it a different way, paying $56 million for the technology and the partners is VERY cheap. The SGA expenses escalating are also easy to explain. Wave has been adding staff at a rapid pace to build content relationships, present at trade shows, and gear up for deployment. This trend is only natural in the move from R&D to deployment. Right now, investing in WAVX requires a "leap of faith" since you can not really analyze earnings trends, cost trends, cash flows or any other standard measurement. Investing in R&D companies is not for everyone, but if you choose the right company, the rewards are the greatest. ragingbull.com * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * By: jerry2 Reply To: 37974 by jerry2 Sunday, 23 May 1999 at 1:27 AM EDT Post #37992 of 38005 Oliver Hahn; In case Oliver doesn't want to come over to this side of the tracks would someone please post this on SI. thank you. ----------------------------- Oliver, Let's take your concerns one sentence at a time. I say that because I am not sure your use of English makes what you are trying to say understandable. The first one I can understand but what is the point you are trying to make. Seems to me the company's product is coming under demand and the expenses to meet those demands, new hires and service readiness, are obviously going to increase. I have no problem investing in that. That would seem to be a pretty normal for a start up company. I include your first sentence below. If you care to get that one out of the way I shall continue with the next one. As far as Motley Clue they were telling their people a year and a half ago Campbell Soup was a good investment and that tanked big time. I have decided to add your second sentence since I have already alluded to it. Perhaps you would be kind enough to explain just what that means? I think I know but since you wrote it I would like to hear your reason for making such a statement. People here seem to be betting on the future, AOL included, and I don't seem to see why you have a problem with that. If you think the company is doing something inappropriate why don't you question them and report back to us. Apparently the rest of us are satisfied by the company. Why don't you present us with something better than your first two sentences which so far seem absurb to me. You want to educate us I think you have to show more than that kind of nonsense. Please feel free to fire away. I personally questioned Steven a year + ago as to why he took a 1,000,000 bonus for signing up IBM as a partner or OEM or whatever it was when in reality we haven't really seem much from IBM. I mention that because it's not like I'm out to give them a free lunch. The fact he took the money perhaps says more about IBM's commitment than some seem to imagine. Both the Spragues have said the OEMs like to play their cards close to their hands and we probably wouldn't hear from them until ready to ship. You can understand that I imagine. Why NEC stepped up I don't know. Maybe that's why they are not the leaders in PC sales. Who's going to buy one of their PC's when they can wait for a Wave enabled? Probably because they are lower profiled than IBM, HWP etc who don't want to lose sales between now and XMAS. At any rate I got off the subject somewhat so fire away. I shall be glad to be enlightened. As far as hiring family members I have no problem with that if they are qualified for the task and before you start criticizing them on the basis of blood, why don't you criticize them on performance if in fact you can. Somebody seems to to be lining up connections that are satisfied. ------------------------------------ 1. 'I read through that link, and found that the losses are growing exponentially! 67% year over year! ' 2. maybe internet companies should be valued such that their P/L equals the growth of their losses. ragingbull.com * * * * * * * * * * I am sure there are numerous other infomative and effective posts toward your concerns on RB as well. Steve