Merck's Future
The Motley Fool
By Phil Weiss (TMF Grape)
TOWACO, NJ (May 24, 1999) -- This week, we're
taking a look at some of the top pharmaceutical
companies. Tonight, I'll be checking in on the industry's
market cap giant -- Merck (NYSE: MRK). Over the
past five years, the company has soundly crushed the
market with a 40% compound average annual return
versus 24% for the S&P 500.
The drug giant has a vast number of agents for a
full-range of medical conditions. Here's a summary of the
company's offerings:
Drug Medical Condition
Zocor high cholesterol
Mevacor high cholesterol
Vasotec hypertension/heart failure
Cozaar hypertension/heart failure
Prinivil hypertension/heart failure
Pepcid stomach ulcers
Fasomax osteoporosis
Crixivan AIDS
Singulair asthma
Maxalt migraines
Propecia male pattern hair loss
Vioxx arthritis
If you check this table in Merck's 10-K, you can see
sales by product line over each of the last three years.
The top two product lines are drugs used to treat
elevated cholesterol and those used to treat
hypertension/heart failure. Over the last three years,
these two product lines have accounted for sales of
more than $25 billion. Merck also has a sizable
pharmaceutical benefits management (PBM) business --
Merck-Medco.
Merck's best-selling product, Zocor, lowers LDL
("bad") cholesterol. In this same class, Merck actually
has another product, Mevacor, but its patent has only
two more years until expiration. According to Merck's
first quarter earnings press release, Zocor is the world's
second-leading medicine in terms of sales. Much has
been made of Lipitor, another cholesterol-lowering drug
that was developed by Warner-Lambert (NYSE:
WLA) and marketed by Pfizer. As of April 15, Lipitor
was receiving approximately 45% of new U.S.
prescriptions among cholesterol-lowering agents. Even
so, from 1997 to 1998, Zocor sales grew by 10% to $4
billion. With the "graying" of America, the overall size of the market for many
of these products is expanding, allowing for more than one winner in a single
category of drugs.
Merck's second best-selling drug, Vasotec, treats heart failure and high blood
pressure. This drug accounted for sales of $2.4 billion in 1998, which was a
4% decline from 1997. Here again, U.S. patent protection is about to expire,
with less than a year remaining. As a result, it is only being promoted as a
heart failure treatment at this time.
Pepcid is next on Merck's list of top-selling drugs. 1998 sales were $1.1
billion, a 6% decline from 1997. But time is running out on this blockbuster as
well, as the anti-ulcerant will lose U.S. patent protection in the fourth quarter
of the year 2000. To some extent, the decline in sales is intentional, as it is
customary for Merck to cut down on promotional expense as drugs approach
patent expiration. At this point, Merck is simply milking Pepcid for maximum
profitability before the onslaught of generic competition.
Merck's newer hypertension and heart failure drug Cozaar and its companion
agent Hyzaar are among the company's fastest growing products. 1998 sales
of these two drugs were $1.1 billion -- a 56% increase from 1997. Launched
in 1995, this hypertension drug combo reached $1 billion of sales faster than
any drug in Merck's history.
Fosamax is Merck's drug to treat and prevent postmenopausal osteoporosis
and reduce the risk of fractures related to osteoporosis. 1998 sales were up
by 46% over 1997 and totaled $775 million.
Another antihypertensive drug, Prinivil, had 1998 sales of $690 million. The
patent for this drug also expires in 2001. 1998 sales of Crixivan, a protease
inhibitor for the treatment of AIDS, were $675 million. Sales of these drugs
increased by 18% and 16% respectively over the prior year.
One thing that I noticed in doing some additional research for tonight's report
is that Merck discloses a lot less information in public documents than does
our pfine pfilly Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). I looked through the 10-K and 10-Q,
and I couldn't find any data listing sales figures for Merck's top selling
products. So, I decided to place a call to the company to see what I could
find out. I spoke with Sharyn Bearse of Public Affairs as well as Investor
Relations.
I didn't discuss product by product sales for the first quarter of this year, but I
did look at the product line data in this table from the 10-Q for the first
quarter. Two things jumped out at me as being significant when I looked at this
table. The first was that the Merck-Medco pharmacy benefit management
business accounted for a significant portion of Merck's growth. Sales in this
lower margin business grew by close to 35% year over year. Without these
sales, Merck's revenues grew by only 16% rather than 24%. However, 16%
growth is still a lot better than I think many would have expected to see with
all the concerns among the Wise about Merck's current and future growth.
In the pharmaceutical industry, a product that has annual sales of $1 billion or
more is considered to be a blockbuster. Currently, Merck has four such
products, however two of them will be off patent within the next 18 months.
So, let's see what there is to carry Merck's future growth.
The first thing that I like to try and understand is what products will most likely
be the company's top sellers five years from now. Zocor's patent doesn't
expire until December 2005, so it seems likely that one would be on the list.
Cozaar has patent protection until August 2009, and Fosamax until August
2007. It seems fairly safe to assume that all three of these will be blockbuster
drugs in five years from now.
Merck has had a number of new products receive Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) approval over the last few years. According to the
company sales of all of these products have met expectations so far. Singulair
is already a leader in its class. By February of this year, 1.1 million
prescriptions had already been written for this product. Maxalt is the fastest
growing oral migraine medication in the U.S. This is an impressive feat given
that it's the fourth product entrant into this category. As of December, over
1.1 million prescriptions had been written for Propecia, Merck's product for
male pattern hair loss. All of these drugs seem to have various levels of
promise, but at this point nothing that I've read convinces me that they will
become blockbusters.
Finally, there is still one big ace in the hole. On Friday, Merck received FDA
approval for its COX-2 painkiller Vioxx. This is the second such product on
the market as Monsanto's Celebrex was approved earlier this year. I talked to
the company about the differences between these two products. Celebrex has
only been approved for osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In
addition to being approved for OA, Vioxx can also be prescribed for acute
pain and menstrual pain. RA studies are still on-going.
The final topic that we discussed was the lifeblood of any pharmaceutical
company -- Merck's product pipeline. The company would not comment on
the potential of any of its products currently in the research pipeline. But the
drugs that are closest to market are those that are currently undergoing Phase
III testing. This is the last phase before data is collected and a New Drug
Application is filed. Phase III takes 2-4 years and includes clinical studies of
patient populations in thousands of people. Merck currently has three
products in Phase III.
Phase IIb testing lasts 9-12 months. It consists of large multi-center studies
with a testing population in the hundreds. During this time, dose range and
efficacy are studied. Merck currently has three products of note in this phase.
Phase IIa lasts from 5-12 months and involves studies with a small number of
patients that have the disease being tested. Merck currently has three products
in this stage. Phase I usually lasts one year and involves clinical studies in
health volunteers. Merck's most significant product in this phase is a cancer
compound. For more on Merck's pipeline you might want to check this link.
All in all, I'm left feeling that Merck will continue to be successful. Sharyn
Bearse, a 32-year veteran of Merck, said at the conclusion of our
conversation, "Merck has always done well even during challenging times."
The company also has an excellent record of bringing products through the
research and development process and into the marketplace. However, this
Foolish long-term shareholder is left thinking that owning this stock over the
next five years may not be as rosy as it has been owning it for the last five.
If you have any questions or would like to continue the discussion further,
please do so in either our Rule Maker Companies board or the Merck
message board.
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