To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (60405 ) 5/23/1999 11:54:00 AM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (4) | Respond to
THC, Here is the way I see things playing out: The worldwide economic numbers will continue to decline. This will increase the trade deficity beyond levels even Alan Greenspan can stand (I think we already past that, but Alan has been pretty strong-willed about ignoring reality). With nobody buying our goods and services and a continuance of zero pricing power, layoffs from good jobs will continue to grow while even the supply of minimum wage litter control jobs at chemical waste dumps will decline. If AG strangles credit, and interest rate rises will not totally do that job, the stock market is likely to fall to at least fair value, about 4600 on the Dow, and more likely to go way past that. We are bi-polar investors, getting way to enthusiastic on the upside and way too depressed ont he downside. One easy step that would reduce credit velocity overnight would be to raise margin requirments. AG has said "never,? but never can be relative to politicians. Another much more important and difficult action would be to regulate or, at least, oversee, all the derivative contracts being issued. I think AG is totally afraid to open that can of worms, but another LTCM will force his hand. What does that mean to the areas you mentioned:
