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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 12:33:00 PM
From: lizardK	Respond to of 15132

Great post Allan!!! You are indeed the king of France <<ggg>>>

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 15132

Great post Allan. Thanks. Another great article form the world champion L.A. Times business section. This one on keeping the bull market alive. Jeff << Sunday, May 23, 1999 MARKET BEAT A Prescription to Keep the Bull Alive: More Crises, Please By TOM PETRUNO latimes.com

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: DD™	Respond to of 15132

I cannot disagree with any of your points, especially Point #7 <gg>. "It's the goaltending, stupid. " Perhaps the Sabres may not disagree with your assesment either, being as they are without "The Dominator" <gg>. DD

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: DD™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Off Topic It indeed has been a tough year for Detroit Hockey. The Detroit Vipers of the IHL did the unthinkable, as they squandered a 3-0 lead in their Eastern Conference Final series with the Orlando Solar Bears. The Vipers had a 4-2 lead with 3 minutes left in the final game, and gave up 2 goals in an 87 second timespan.. scoreboard.canoe.ca scoreboard.canoe.ca DD

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Allan, Your comments about how you evaluate internet stocks were interesting. I'd appreciate some further details regarding how you go about picking internet company A verses company B. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/23/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 15132

Allen, Thanks for your post. One comment on your <<3. He pointed out yesterday that there has not been a Bear Market since 1990. I think the case can be made that there was indeed a Bear Market in 1998.>> There was also a bear market in 1994. The major averages were flattish, but a lot of stocks got creamed. The averages were held up by the current nifty fifty (or hundred, or whatever it is these days). I forget now what the stats were, but it was pretty gruesome for most stocks. So can we now conclusively say that in this Great New Era, we're on a 4 year bear cycle?<vbg>

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5292)	5/24/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Allan: Re: " The timing model may be nearing a SELL signal. This model has issued one signal in 11 years, a signal that has been correct, to say the least. Does that make the timing model the holy grail of market forecasting?" I am not sure what sell signal you are talking about. With respect to whether Brinker's timing model is the holy grail of market forecasting, time will tell all but he is one of the few that has been correctly bullish throughout this entire bull run. And I find it interesting that some (not saying you) may listen to him every weekend and subscribe to his newsletter but decide not to take any action whatsoever in the face of a sell signal. One must ask themselves, why bother to do any of this if one plans to sit through a bear market irrespective of what Brinker recommends. Re: "If he turns bearish, for whatever reason, that will too gain our respect and confidence, but it will not supplant my own mind, my own indicators, my own approach to the market. It is indeed a leg that will crumble, but only one leg." Yes, you are your own man ultimately and thanks for sharing your declaration of independence with us, but the leg analogy does not work for me. There are not too many things in my mind that hold up well in the absence of one leg. Re: "The Internet Fad. Those that talk about overvaluation of this sector remind me of politicians that talk about pornography. They can't define it, but they know it when they see it. In other words, they don't know how to value an Internet stock, but they know that they are overvalued." One can make the same argument about internets being fairly valued according to internet investors. The internet investors may say that the stocks are fairly valued or undervalued, but they can't say why but they know it is the case if they see it, especially if the stock price goes up over and above what they paid for the shares. The truth be told, many if not most fail traditional valuation measures and, if such measures are said not to apply, one must develop new meausres and those measures must stand the test of time. And since these issues have not been around long enough to stand the test of time and the new valuation measures, one must at least conclude that for now nobody knows how to value these companies. The truth of this conclusion is found in the extreme volatility of these shares. Re: "He pointed out yesterday that there has not been a Bear Market since 1990. I think the case can be made that there was indeed a Bear Market in 1998." Within the context of Bob's model, 1998 was not a bear market. Sure the percentages were close to a bear, but the duration of the correction did not match a traditional bear market as defined by the model. A bear market lasts from six months to two years; an intermediate correction lasts from six weeks to six months. Re: "Not everyone who buys Internet stocks is a Daytrader or Gunslinger. I have owned many of my Internet stocks for well over 18 months and although I have taken partial profits on the way up, have not sold completely out of a single one of them. Nor do I buy just anything with a dot.com in it's name. I take investing in this sector quite seriously and demand substance in the business and stellar management with a proven record of successful execution before considering investment in any stock, including Internets." Good point and good approach but you must realize, of course, that you must thank the mania surrounding these stocks to a degree for a good deal of the profits you have had the good fortune of taking. And you must realize that Bob is talking to a general audience who need an internet warning as they are clueless as can be seen by the callers who bought these shares at or near the top and invested much of their money in them.