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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (59340)	5/23/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 1573433

<Chuck - re: Assuming Intel doubles the Celeron number to 10Mu during the current quarter and leaves $100 per unit on the table, they would lose about $1B in revenues (pure margins).> Pretty scary for Intel shareholders. I sold 90% of my INTC at around $59 on Wednesday, and Thursday. I will unload the rest Monday morning. After that I will start buying puts on any run up. Kap.

To: Charles R who wrote (59340)	5/23/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1573433

Charles, Re: Celery volumes and margins. I think Intel made 8M Celerons last quarter with an average ASP of $120-130 resulting in $1B revenues. If Intel started producing 15M Celerons/qtr for arguments sake the numbers may not be terrible. In 0.18 micron their die size drops from 150mm2 to 80mm2. And clock speeds which are artificially kept to 466 at 0.25 should easily ramp to 550/600Mhz. So they can easily ramp celeron ASP's to $180-200 all the while reducing their overall costs substantially from the 0.25 micron. Couple that with the increasing sales of Xeons etc. one can still see an average ASP of over $200. So even in this worst case scenario where PIII and coppermine lose momentum due to the K7 they will still do OK. Remember AMD can't produce much more than 5-6M cpu's/qtr as the increasing die sizes of KIII and K7 soak up increased fab capacity. I think that due to Intel status with the 0.18 micron production they have a major defense agianst AMD. Once AMD cranks up Dresden and it's own 0.18 thats when Intel could really suffer. If AMD fails to deliver huge volumes till mid next year then remember Intel will likely have WIllamette coming plus they will probably ramp some some 0.15/Cu product out as well. AMD seems to have a real opportunity AGAIN but it sure isn't a sure thing yet. Regards, Kash

To: Charles R who wrote (59340)	5/24/1999 1:48:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573433

Kap, "how much revenue loss would result from doubling the Celeron unit sales at the expense of PII and PIII?" Intel may have already totally stopped Pentium II wafer starts. I think Intel has a BIG RISK that typical conservative business users will stick with the older Celeron design rather than switch to the flashy 3D-optimized Pentium III. The business users continued using the Pentium II even as it became more and more ridiculous to do so, simply because it was the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE. NO DECISION=Pentium II. Most companies will always follow the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE, i.e., the path of NO DECISION. But while business typically makes plenty of bad NON-decisions, they do not make many bad decisions. Now, the Pentium II is disappearing, and business users will have to make a decision since they can't continue to buy their favorite CPU anymore. One third will go with the Pentium III, one third will go with the Celeron and one third will go with an AMD chip. By the end of the year, to Intel's dismay, the Celeron will be outselling all other Intel chips, and their average selling price will collapse to ~$150. Petz