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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oliver Hahn who wrote (6995)	5/23/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: Harold Lehman	Respond to of 11417

I knew (I'm in the medical field) that there was a clear demand for this and let a trivial point affect my decision. My whole point is that if you think this is a significant new product that has a chance of implementation things should work out (e.g.-money will find its way there), but only if the product is that good. Even though I'm not in the field, I have that belief in this product and the management. I think that many of the delays were due to the fact that it was so far ahead of its time. It was throught of before the internet as a public entitiy even existed, let alone a majority of those connections being high-speed, enhancing digital delivery. I just won't let an opprotunity as well thought out as this go down the drain. Good luck to you whatever you decide to do. Harold

To: Oliver Hahn who wrote (6995)	5/23/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: SDR-SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Oliver: I am not sure that I understand the validity of your attempt at an "expected value" analysis for WAVX, which you have put forth as follows: > > >A popular price target thrown around is $100 for the stock. If there is only a 10% chance of hitting that level, this stock is a dog at $10 and a rip-off at $20. Let's take snackman's (or Livermore's) estimate of 40% success and assume $100 is the success level. At $20 per share you will on average only realize double your money, so it is critical to ask how long will it take to realize these gains. I would hope there are some estimates of a justifiable price target, a reasonable time frame, and probability of acheiving those targets.< < < Your calculations apparently are based upon the speculation that the results of stock price action will be $100 or $0 and there is no other possible outcome. Although I would not be so presumptuous to speak for them, certainly neither Snackman nor Jesse are advocating a pricing result that is only bipolar. Certainly by assigning a probability to WAVX reaching any particular number, they have not precluded the price reaching at least some lower number at some greater probability or some higher number with a lesser probability. In fact, were one to try to quantify their or "the market"s" price potential, the result for each would be an individual continuous probability density function with price values from 0 to whatever the reasonable maximum is. Your calculation of the implied true expected value of the information included in the probability function would be the integrated total which represents the probability of any particular price times that price, added up for all possible price outcomes. Your derivation of a 10% chance of a stock hitting $100 makes its expected value $10, or that a 40% chance of hitting $100 makes its expected value $40 is TOTALLY BOGUS. What about the chance of the stock reaching 30, 40, 50, 60 ,70, 80 ,90, etc. Although I would hope to keep myself from becoming paranoid, certainly a person with your ability is aware of the above, so I must therefore expect an AGENDA of some sort. And now that we're back at this again, with your powers of reasoning and analysis, why would you have FIRST bought, then done the analysis. There is something either nonsensical or cart-before-horse-ish about such an action, which is incongruous with your abilities. This is another reason that many would suspect an AGENDA. Just my opinion, but what do I know. Steve