Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (5304)	5/24/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

marc u: Interesting article reviewing 73-74 Bear. If we add a zero to each of the DOW closes of 73-74, yada yada yada :-(( On the other hand, today's economic backdrop is very different (and more positive) from the 73-74 period. Also, during 73-74, individual investor trading comprised a much larger proportion of total trading than today where institutions make up approximately 90% of trading. Of course if the smart money managers of today are smart enough to quickly realize we are in a bear market environment and panic sell to get out, we could get any bear market of today over with much more quickly than in 73-74 when clueless individual investors hung in there sipping from their hope cocktails. Of course there may be some Y2K panic sellers thrown into the mix later this year. P

To: marc ultra who wrote (5304)	5/26/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

sentiment numbers bulls 60.7 bears28.6 bulls/(bulls+bears)=67.97 no change from last week

To: marc ultra who wrote (5304)	5/26/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

My Fed comment, worth the price of electrons being used I think the Fed is likely to make a .25% hike in June unless compelling evidence in the May numbers or emerging markets dissuade them. I think they may look at last year's rate cuts especially the last one as an extreme action they had to take due to fear of a global meltdown. While there is currently concern e.g. in Latin America they will no longer see the probability of touching off a disaster and they will focus on the US economy which they will feel they have exacerbated the fires of the strong economy along with the market with last year's rate cuts and liquidity and they will probably be ready to take one rate cut back along with whatever else they have been doing to clamp down on the money supply. It will be hard for those arguing the high growth no inflation line to prevail given the last CPI so obviously the upcoming CPI PPI and jobs report will be important. Marc