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To: John Hunt who wrote (34418)5/24/1999 8:08:00 AM
From: long-gone  Respond to of 116786
 
Dancing in an economic minefield

David Bamberger owns David Bamberger & Associates, a firm specializing in consulting and economic research for local and national clients. He has been an economist in El Paso County since 1971.
Spring is here and it's time for a birthday celebration.
Happy Birthday - It's been a wild year.
Inside Business is 1 year old this month. That means that this is the 13th edition of our Business Cycle column. In celebration, let's reflect on the past 12 months and speculate about the future.
Over the past year we've traveled through the mysterious land of business cycle economics. The Asian economic crisis spread to other parts of the world, including Russia and several South American countries. International investors lost huge amounts of money as loans were defaulted, equity markets declined and national currencies were devalued.
By late summer there was serious concern of global financial collapse. Investor confidence fell. Between May and September, the U.S. stock market lost about 20 percent of its value. To restore confidence, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered short-term interest rates. The Fed Funds Rate fell by about 0.5 percent between August and October.
Yet the impending slowdown in the U.S. economy never materialized. Consider:
Consumer spending grew by 6 percent.
Unemployment dropped to a little over 4 percent.
Inflation remained in check at a rate of less than 2 percent.
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 5 percent.
The stock market gained about 50 percent in value from a low in October 1998.
In spite of the global turmoil, the Colorado Springs economy, like the U.S. economy, remained stronger than ever. The latest indicator data shows:
Job growth at close to 7,000 per year (2.9 percent)
New car and truck sales at 24,000 per year
Unemployment at 4.1 percent
Single family housing starts at 4,200 per year
Growth in city sales tax collections of 6.1 percent per year
Hotel occupancy at 67 percent
Where are the risks to continued prosperity for the national and the local economy?
The Y2K computer problem - There is a chance that Y2K - where date-sensitive computer systems can't recognize the year 2000 - might lead to a global recession. Failure of computer systems would cause a major disruption of the normal flow of production and distribution world-wide. This might shake investor confidence enough to cause stock prices to fall. Consumers and business would retrench and cut their spending sending the world economy into recession.
Over-valued stock market - Theoretically, the value of a stock is based on the present value of its future earnings, adjusted for risk. Using this model, the stock market was about 35 percent overvalued in mid-May. This is the highest the market has been over-valued since the market meltdown in 1987.
Consumer debt bubble - During the first three months of 1999, consumer debt increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent while personal income increased by 6 percent. At the same time the personal savings rate was a -0.5 percent. This means that consumers spent one-half of 1 percent more than their disposable income. Clearly consumers are on a roll, spending at a rapid rate. Why not? The stock market is at record highs, income is higher than ever and there is little fear of losing a job.
It is clear, the national economy continues on a tightrope walk. The risk of falling off is high. For now the wind has dropped and the walker has regained his balance. When will the wind start up again? Maybe later this year.
gazette.com

I thought these were "The Best of Times"?:

Truckers get more bad news

By Jason Blevins
Denver Post Staff Writer
May 24 - Rick Bastin's mother is recovering from stomach cancer. His daughter is in college, and his father is a disabled war veteran. And Thursday, he went home and told his family, all of whom share his Denver home, he was out of work.
On Sunday, the news got worse. No more insurance, no vacation pay and no reimbursement for the past two weeks of work.
More than 500 former truck drivers and dock workers for NationsWay Transport Service Inc. gathered Sunday to learn the bankrupt company could no longer provide insurance coverage, pension pay or even a paycheck to cover the last two weeks worth of work. The company's owner, Jerry McMorris, filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy last Thursday....
denverpost.com
Mornin' John



To: John Hunt who wrote (34418)5/24/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: long-gone  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116786
 
food shortage inflation?
PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO
Army prepares
for Y2K food crisis
Undercover Special Forces operatives
in distribution center

By David M. Bresnahan
© 1999 WorldNetDaily.com

Army Special Forces are engaged in a secret operation to learn how to protect food distribution centers in the event of a Y2K emergency or other disaster, according to witnesses.
Information which led to the discovery of the undercover operation came from a witness who worked in the presence of the soldiers who are posing as security guards and temporary workers at one of the largest food distribution centers in the nation.
Soldiers are taking part in the exercise to prepare for the possibility they could be called on to protect food distribution warehouses around the country if a Y2K disruption causes civil unrest. They appear to be normal security guards and workers to those who see them, so it was difficult to find corroboration of the claim, which was first reported to WorldNetDaily in April.
The exercise began when the local Teamsters went on strike against the Galaxy Logistics food distribution warehouse at 1700 Elm Hill Pike, Nashville, Tenn. Temporary workers were called in to keep the very large distribution center functioning. Galaxy Logistics handles food distribution for Kroger Company.
Galaxy Logistics Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada. It was formed in 1998 and operates under Tibbett & Britten Group North America. Galaxy acquired Kroger's warehouse and entered into an exclusive, multi-year contract with the large international grocery company. Galaxy took over the contracts of an estimated 470 Teamster employees when it acquired the distribution center for an undisclosed amount in August 1998.
When the Teamsters went on strike at the end of April, temporary workers were called in to maintain operations. The temporary workers were actually brought to work and received training at least four days prior to the start of the strike. Picket lines have been peaceful and consist of only a few workers with signs, often as few as two.
AWF provides security for the large facility and put some soldiers into their company uniforms, enabling them to easily observe and learn at a time when they would not be easily detected, according to a reliable Special Forces source who has worked with WorldNetDaily on other investigative reports.
"They need information and experience in order to devise a plan to protect these facilities. It's simply a fact-finding mission," the source explained after some prompting. He was hesitant because this operation is apparently not the only one taking place, although he would not give further details.
"Ask me about something specific and I'll see what I can tell you," he stated when asked for locations of similar activities.
The soldiers are responding to orders to be prepared to protect and support critical facilities in the event of Y2K-related disruptions. Undercover forces are in the process of gathering information about those facilities now in order to have a plan in place if it is needed. "You've got the picture," he confirmed.
"Protection of food distribution centers will be critical if it gets really bad. People will be out of food within days," he explained. Although the Red Cross and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have stated they are prepared to move people to shelters within three to five days of a Y2K disaster, the source said the military believes it will take much longer and many people will be out on the streets looting and causing unrest.
A memorandum from Deputy Secretary of Defense John J. Hamre to all defense agencies spells out the need to be prepared to "respond to requests for assistance from civil authorities both domestically and overseas throughout the Y2K date transition period (defined as Sept. 1, 1999, through March 31, 2000)."
That same document, obtained by WorldNetDaily, lists the priorities for the Department of Defense, both foreign and domestic. Included under "Maintenance of public health and safety" appears the priority for "food distribution." The document also lists concerns for local fire, ambulance, police, hospitals, air traffic control, rail support, ship navigation and public information dissemination.
Suspicion was first aroused when the company which provides fork lifts to Galaxy Logistics was hired to provide training for the temporary workers. One of the trainers has military experience and noticed that some of the people he was training just "didn't fit in."
Over a period of several days of observation and making friendly conversation with the men who "didn't fit in," the trainer observed them reviewing aerial photographs of the location, hiding military clothing in a large closet or storage area, talking with each other using rank designations, and one man accidentally saluted another and was severely reprimanded for his action. Two were also seen to have concealed weapons under their coats.
When the trainer expressed his suspicions, five of six men he spoke with admitted they were from Fort Bragg Special Forces. One man who said he was a colonel and served in Vietnam, then asked the trainer many questions about his own military background since he too had served in Vietnam. That made the trainer very nervous.
The next day his concerns grew when the same colonel denied any military connections. He is known to WorldNetDaily, and the company he works for confirmed that training was provided to the workers at Galaxy Logistics. The trainer believes he may be in some danger if his name were made public.
"When I went into a back office to use the phone, there was a stack of flak jackets," he described. He said that his company was responsible for training hundreds of temporary workers how to use the forklifts at the facility. He was unable to estimate how many of the workers were military, but he did say many had a military appearance that gave them away.
The security guards and temporary workers were overheard to converse with each other about common military interests. Some were heard to comment on which base they were from. The trainer said they told him they just wanted to blend in with the other temporary workers.
The trainer also observed large 12-passenger vans used to transport many of the workers. They were fleet vehicles with government plates and military base stickers. He said the windows were blacked out. The stickers read, "Department of Defense, Ft. Bragg." Some also showed Fort Campbell or Fort Knox.
The vans were used to transport the workers and had an escort vehicle in front and in back. Drivers were in radio communication with each other and a command center using military designations and language.
The trainer was transported in one of the vans with the temporary workers.
"After being briefed on the way over on what to do if an emergency was called, I saw guards around the perimeter (dressed) in black. When I asked, the driver said they were the Tactical Response Team. When we got around the building, a shorter man came out of the rear door. He saluted and was immediately called to the side and severely scolded for saluting," the trainer described.
When he was taken inside the large facility he saw many temporary workers who had a strong military appearance. He said he was able to count at least 50.
The Galaxy Logistics food distribution center is normally protected by a private security firm, AWF. Workers contacted at the warehouse said the guards normally change on a frequent basis, so the appearance of new faces among the guards would not cause concern. The change in the security personnel would also not be noticed with so many temporary workers filling in, according to one of the sources who also witnessed a military presence.
"They're just here to learn. I don't see what's the big deal," said a woman employee contacted at the warehouse at random by phone. Identification that the request was from WorldNetDaily was given at the start of the call. She was asked why there were members of Special Forces working at the warehouse. After her response she wanted to know "who are you again?" The information was repeated and she said, "Oh, you're the press. I can't talk to you." She hung up.
Another call was placed and a different woman said, "Galaxy Logistics, Cortinay speaking." When asked if military people were present at her facility she responded, "Let me refer you to someone who could really answer that question for you." She then handed the phone to someone else.
"Good afternoon. Command post. This is Jim. How can I help you," came the voice. After giving identification and the purpose of the call, he said, "Um, I'm not at liberty to answer any of those questions." He said he would have someone call who could respond.
Galaxy Logistics public relations spokesman Bill Scher did call and said the claims were "absolutely untrue." He confirmed that AWF handles security, and he said they are not armed.
Over the weekend, WorldNetDaily informed Scher of additional information that indicated the military placed security guards and temporary workers in the facility without informing Galaxy Logistics of their presence. Scher did not dispute the possibility, but he said he did not know anything about it.
AWF has not responded to requests for information. Kroger has also not returned calls from WorldNetDaily. Teamster local president Jimmy White has not returned calls made to his office.
worldnetdaily.com



To: John Hunt who wrote (34418)5/24/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: donald martin  Respond to of 116786
 
O/T - seti@home

Better still, put those extra clock cycles to work searching for a 64 bit encryption key at distributed.net Winning machine gets $2,000. Nice little lottery ticket.

(With a PII-300 MHz running linux I figured it'd take about 675,000 years to examine the whole keyspace.)