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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benny Baga who wrote (5637)	5/24/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: CAPT TONY	Respond to of 20297

Finally -- an analyst update: Industry Conference Highlights BUY 52-Week Range: 69-6 EARNINGS PER SHARE Daily Vol(000s): 600 1997 1998 1999E 2000E Shares O/S(mil): 55.9 Sep ($0.10) ($0.06) ($0.05)A NA Market Cap(mil): $2,704 Dec ($0.10) ($0.02) $0.00A NA Avg. ROE FY1999E: NA Mar ($0.08) $0.00 $0.04A NA EPS Growth: 40% Jun ($0.07) $0.03 $0.05 NA Debt/Capital: 3.4% Fis EPS ($0.34) ($0.04) $0.04 NA Book Value/Share: $3.32 P/E (Fis) NM NM NM NM Dividend/Yield: $0.00/0.0% Cal EPS NA NA NA NA Insider Holdings: 15.4% P/E (Cal) NM NM NM NM S & P 500: 1330.00 Note: Numbers may not add because of rounding. * Electonic Bill Presentment and Payment (EBPP) Adoption By Billers Accellerating * Trend Toward Outsourcing Over Insourcing Clear * Mixed Progress On Banks Rollout of Web Home Banking Programs * Wells Fargo Approaching 1 million On Line Customers Last week's two day conference on electronic bill presentment and payment was standing room only at points and provided valuable insights into the development, growth of this emerging market. Below we highlight the more important points for CKFR investors. Biller Adoption Accellerating -- Various survey data point to the quickening pace of adoption by large biller communities (utilities, telecommunications, credit card, insurance and publishing companies.) Over 50% of high volume billers plan to pursue EBPP by year end 1999. By 2000 at least 36% of high volume billers plan to offer EBPP programs, up from 6% in March 1999. Billers Deploying Multiple Distribution Models -- A key component of biller programs is reach. In an effort to have as many convenient consumer touchpoints as possible, billers are working to distribute bills through 1) consolidators/aggregators like CKFR, 2) portals, 3) directly through their own web sites and in some cases 4) E-mail. Today, Checkfree is supporting/ enabling billers deploying the most popular models (1 - 3). Billers Favoring Outsourcing Over Insourcing -- According to the April PricewaterhouseCoopers/ American Banker Survey of Leading Billers, 60% of billers plan to outsource their EBPP programs. Not surprisingly, CKFR was cited most frequently as a vendor billers are working with or planning to work with. However, billers are also indicating that they plan to work with additional vendors ( Transpoint, Pricnceton Telecom, others) going forward, which is something to watch. Banks Internet Banking/Bill Pay Progress Mixed -- Our read from the conference and field contacts is that while most of the major banks in the country have a big push to get their fully transactional home banking web sites up, they are still struggling in a couple of areas. Regulators are requiring banks to be fully Y2K compliant by the end of June, which we see slowing down the development of their on-line initiatives. Even though banks have first generation platforms up they are not necessarily marketing them aggressively partly because of Y2K and also because a fully scalable infrastructure is not in place. So while we certainly see subscriber growth trending up we're not convinced that a break out into double-digit growth will occur before Q1/Q2 of calendar 2000. A wildcard will be the adoption rates by portals, e-brokers and other personal financial web cites that CKFR has under contract or will contract with in the near term. We are revisiting our subscriber/revenue growth assumptions. Wells Fargo (CKFR Customer) Showing Impressive On-Line Adoption Numbers -- Wells, one of the pace setting institutions in the market, has approximately 850,000 on-line subscribers heading to 1.5 million by year end. Importantly, the value proposition looks healthy as Wells is finding that customer retention improves for on-line versus branch customers and is higher still for on-line customers who use the bill pay feature. In addition, on-line customers have greater balance and more accounts with the bank than branch customers. New On-Line Banking Standards Emerging - EBPP participants are moving towards agreement on a more robust technology standard called IFX (Interactive Financial Exchange). The capabilities of the earlier OFX and Gold standards will be combined and enhanced to form the new standard. IFX will be more open, include the powerfull internet XML protocal. Ultimately it should help lower technology implementation costs (i.e., fewer systems requirements) for billers and banks and quicken adoption. Pilots of IFX are slated to begin late 1999. We reiterate our Buy rating. œ ING Baring Furman Selz LLC makes a market in the common stock of this company. + ING Baring Furman Selz has acted as a manager or co-manager of a recent securities offering.