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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5318)	5/24/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 15132

The problem with a sell signal anytime within the last 20 years (or should that be 200?), is getting the BUY signal before the market is far above your buy point. One sister, who I would describe as otherwise intelligent, has essentially been out of equities for the past decade based upon advice from highly successful and respected financial gurus. I firmly believe if the money isn't to be spent within the next 5 years, it should be in equities. FWIW, Ian.

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5318)	5/24/1999 4:23:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Allan: Re: " I thought I heard him comment yesterday that about half of the Timing Model SELL signals see the market appreciate 1-2% before turning down and the other half apparently nail to the Top. So there do appear to be other signals, notably SELLS, that have occurred in either real time or on paper." Yes, you heard correctly -- actually " a few percentage points." Adding to that, he stated that his model is not designed to give a sell signal in a declining market. Brinker has not had a sell signal under this timing model. I believe his comments regarding same are the result of back testing his model. Unfortunately, he was not clear on this issue.