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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3254)	5/25/1999 4:58:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5390

psst, Tero, heard about the MSM5000? <Nobody seems willing to bet the ranch on 3G at this point.> True, it is only part way towards 3G, but Q! is well on the way. The big mistake the GSM promoters make is to think that they can get multimedia out of GSM. The economic disadvantage of GSM is compounded by requiring high data rates. With voice, with relatively low data rates, the price per minute disadvantage is very large. With Web-rate data, it is huge. Qualcomm has bet the ranch on backward compatible cdma2000 and forward compatible cdmaOne handsets. The silly SETI people and UMTS are still playing the old IPR game. But Ericy sold the farm with the infrastructure agreement and IPR resolution. That agreement set the benchmark for all CDMA by Qualcomm. Expect no discounts. The total royalties will be Qualcomm's 5.5% [or whatever the precise figure is] with other royalties added on to that and if it comes to 10% or 15%, bad luck! Meanwhile, now that the infrastructure purchase has been completed, expect a flood of cdmaOne orders flowing from China, New Zealand and all over the place. Which is a delicious irony. Do you recall lecturing me how Ericy has NO interest in cdmaOne? Do you recall people thinking my head must be made of concrete to not 'get it' that Ericy were NOT< NOT< NOT< interested in cdmaOne? Now, Ericy is going to get a vast cdmaOne sales base thanks to the stupid bombing of the Chinese embassy. Motorola and Lucent can forget getting any orders out of China any time soon. NTT will be in panic when they see the sales figures coming out of Japan for cdmaOne. I have a cdmaOne handset as sold in Japan and it makes the ThinPhone look like a small truck. [It's actually one of those models they put in shops which don't actually work but look and weigh exactly the same as the real thing]. NTT will be installing cdmaOne very soon with an upgrade path to cdma2000 or maybe W-CDMA which they [along with Vodafone and others] will make sure is backward compatible to cdmaOne. If NTT waits until W-CDMA is ready, they'll have lost too much business. 3G is coming and it will be cdma2000 based. W-CDMA will be so close as to not matter. The costs will be cheap enough to create a huge demand and those who want voice only will be able to have that at very low prices. Maurice