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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (30554)	5/24/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Double digit revenue growth could be achieved by rising ASPs (average selling prices) with zero growth in unit volume. Remember that the massive declines in chip industry revenue the last few years occurred as unit volumes hit record highs. TSMC told me that their transition to 0.18 micron will require essentially no new equipment, as existing equipment was purchased with extendibility in mind. At least one forecaster (Bill McClean) claims that massive chip revenue growth is only possible without major capital expenditures, as more capex would extend the 98 capacity overhang. And keep in mind that "double digit growth" is only 10%, which is the long term chip industry average and therefore not particularly good news for chip companies. Katherine