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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (30556)	5/24/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dataquest predicts year end 2000 DRAM shortage By News Staff Electronic Buyers' News (05/24/99, 11:56:09 AM EDT) A DRAM shortage at the end of 2000 will drive worldwide semiconductor sales upward by 21.6% in 2001, according to a forecast by Dataquest Inc., San Jose. By 2001, global chip sales are estimated to reach $218 billion compared with $153 billion in 1999, and $179 million in 2000, according to the report. “A key assumption to the forecast is a DRAM shortage starting in late 2000, which will cause DRAM revenue to peak in 2001,” said Ron Bohn, director of research for Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group. “After that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply will repeat itself.” As a result, worldwide semiconductor revenue growth will decelerate. And in 2002 and 2003, the market will grow by 5.9% and 5.6%, respectively. Double-digit growth through 2001 will be propelled by PCs, consumer electronics, and communications equipment, which account for nearly two-thirds of total chip sales, according to Joe Grenier, vice president of Dataquest's semiconductor device programs. “Of the top 20 high-growth semiconductor applications, nine are communication applications, six are consumer applications, and four are PC workstation applications,” Grenier said, in a prepared statement. ebnews.com

To: Duker who wrote (30556)	5/24/1999 3:22:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Double digit revenue growth could be achieved by rising ASPs (average selling prices) with zero growth in unit volume. Remember that the massive declines in chip industry revenue the last few years occurred as unit volumes hit record highs. The likelihood of zero unit growth is ??? Wouldn't this require flat/flattish DRAM unit output ??? ... I am envisioning a DRAM Cartel, working together to solidify their oligopoly ... hmmm ... seems pretty unlikely ...<< Yes, that is unlikely. The forecasts I've seen expect unit growth and rising ASPs to make roughly equal contributions to revenue gains. My point was that not only does double digit revenue growth not require big capacity purchases, it may actually be more likely to occur without them. Regarding TSMC, they have not issued a press release regarding plans for a 300mm fab. I'm playing phone tag with them regarding the SBN story, but don't have any information at this time. Katherine