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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (14802)	5/24/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

BOTTOM LINE ON THE MARKET. May 24, 1999. Ord Oracle. On the sidelines. WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. Has the decline started without us? Maybe. We did have a +980 up-tick reading last Thursday at 1355 on the June S&P's that did coincide with a bearish candlestick pattern called a "Bearish Engulfing". Normally there will be two days of up-tick reading exceeding near +600 to indicate a top signal. This go around there was only one high up-tick reading day, which was the +980. Therefore we did not get an ideal trigger for a top. Never the less, the June S&P's decline from last Thursday's high. For short term, the tick index did reach minus 957 today near the low today. Downtick readings exceeding minus -900 appear near short-term lows. Also the intraday ARMS Index reached 1.83 today. Intraday ARMS Index readings that exceed 1.50 usually appear near short term lows. Friday and today the ARMS Index closings exceeded 1.30. Usually when the ARMS Index closes at 1.30 or greater a short-term low is made the next business day or the day after. Today's closings ARMS Index was 1.79, which is a strong indication the market is near a short term low. Therefore the ARMS Index reading predicts a short-term low should appear today or tomorrow. The "5 day ARMS" closed at 6.09. Readings near "6.00" also appear near short-term lows. The bigger trend is down; we like to trade with the trend. Therefore, we will wait for a bounce and look for the next shorting opportunity. >>>Maybe we'll get the familiar pattern of the follow-through selling >>>in the morning into mid-day followed by short-term bounce.