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Technology Stocks : Random Musings of a Virgin Trader (was Dell Diary) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: powershred who wrote (71)	5/24/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: powershred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 210

The Skinny on the financials..... Dang no wonder I hate fundamental analysis so much...but here goes... 1996 1997 1998 1999 Ave Q1 Revenue $5296 $7759 $12327 $18243 $5537 Desktops $4289 $5741 $ 8259 $11493 $3377 Servers $ 159 $ 465 $ 1355 $ 2554 $ 885 Portables $ 847 $1552 $ 2712 $ 4195 $1273 Gross Margins 20.1 21.4 22.0 22.5 21.7 21.4 Operating Margin 7.1 9.2 10.6 11.2 9.5 10.8 ROA 18.1 26.0 26.2 23.4 24.0 ROAE 49.1 79.3 80.8 69.7 67.6 A/R Days 63 42 44 42 47 35 Inv days 19 15 9 7 12 6 Z Score 3.22 4.20 4.55 4.42 4.09 4.86 Net Cash 7.9 10.7 7.49 14.1 as % of Rev Am I blind? looks like business as usual. The question is not whether DELL is slowing...because it is in relative terms....it was easier to double when they were a billion dollar company...now they are an $18B behemoth.... What seems to be lost in the shuffle is the astounding growth in the server business.... Conclusion: Buy on dips...write covered calls on existing positions...while we wati. Its still a great run company... Another Long..reducing... Message 9718167 Ever the optimist? Message 9727744 A fool in me?..current view can be surmised as... When investing in a business, most investors see only a stock price...I should spend no time or effort watching, predicting or anticipating stock price changes. Rather, I should spend my time increasing my understanding of the business. I should continue to valuate the company by their return on shareholders equity, changes in margins and debt levels, and its ability to generate future cash flow. As long as these parameters have been fulfilled, the stock price should continue to perform accordingly.... ...sounding like a fool?...time will tell. the tree has been shaken...I am not coming down yet....