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To: Kayaker who wrote (8568)	5/24/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: SHGLaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19700

Boy, have a little blood bath and everybody turns so negative about things. The sun didn't start shining on an up day on the naz, and it won't stop because of a down one. And if CNBC said the fed might take back the last 3 rate cuts, I know I would believe them because they are such astute business people. (I would make one of those little smiley faces, but I so despise them). SHG

To: Kayaker who wrote (8568)	5/24/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19700

Ref your "I heard this morning on CNBC that the Fed could take back the last 3 rate cuts." Well, from my understanding of Economics, the probability of the fed taking back the last three rate cuts in say the next six to twelve months approaches within a kronecker delta of 0. You see, I also know "heard" that the fed is printing 50 Billion in currency to "alleviate" public fears regarding access to money in light of Y2K. IMHO, the fed may talk raising interest rates but we are already within the Event Horizon. When the fed tightens, yes markets react but when does the economy really feel it? Six to Eighteen months out. Let's see. Fed meets in June. June + six months = December 99. Given uncertainty regarding Y2K, especially overseas - the last thing the fed wants to do is have the brakes applied too tight, the economy contracting, and people pulling money out of the bank and Y2K not going as smoothly as the experts say. That is a recipe for recession. Mr. Greenspan will not want to have that as potentially the last act of an otherwise sterling tenure which started in 1987. Don't forget, it was Mr. Greenspan that got us through those dark days in the fall/winter of 87. And last of all, Mr. Greenspan believes in "soft landings" Y2K is the brake they will never mention.