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To: E_K_S who wrote (18552)	5/24/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 25814

I would say 30 times next year's consensus earnings estimates, is a good exit point. If the consensus estimate for Year 2000 goes up to $2.35 any time this year and LSI trades at $70 any time this year, you could get out this year itself with little or no regrets, IMO.

To: E_K_S who wrote (18552)	5/24/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

I'd like to go with my all time favorite prediction for the next exit point - when the Tailand fabs and Malaysian fabs and Vietnamese fabs are getting to be all ramped. Nothing racist, just a question on timing. It should take everybody making good money at the top for them to be able to get their money together to try to build and get in on the action. I totally agree with leaving a little bit early. When the drop starts, it usually like falling off a cliff. I would not mind missing the top 10% at all just to protect my gains. patrick

To: E_K_S who wrote (18552)	5/28/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Eric: Watch for equity offerings that come by the drove. When the time comes, the companies will need extra assets to buoy future sales, their stocks will be very high, they will go willingly to the equity markets, the stocks will soon thereafter crash... Having said that there is one significant and yet subtle difference this time around. There is a lot of outsourcing going on in the semi-sector. The foundries are serving as the capital accumulators and the risk takers here. The Motorolas of the world therefore may not have as much need for assets as before to generate the same increases in sales (TSMC et al will have the assets) - so MOT et al would not have to raise the money in the equity markets. Mmmm... the corollary here is that the peak will come when TSMC makes an equity offering. Mmmm.. Didn't TSMC just do that??? Interesting... Actually TSMC is in the right place at the right time I think - if the cycle is already over that'll be pathetic. One other major point - Y2K induced spending. I sense that some weirdness in the semisector right now is Y2K induced. How much I don't know. Yet at some point there may be a hiccup in order rates. BTW Y2K effect is seriously over-rated here. Elsewhere it may be more real... What do they say about counting one's chickens before they are hatched???