To: Joe who wrote (2490 ) 5/26/1999 11:23:00 PM From: Jay Respond to of 4140
Hi Joe, Sorry I never got back to you on RB. I'm up here in the Pacific Northwest and the weather got nice, hence I've spent a small amount of time on line. Quickly checking my McMillan book, the discrepancy between puts and calls is the put-call ratio and has some limited predictive power as a contrary indicator. On p.243 of "McMillan on Options", he states: "Technicians have been calculating the put-call ratio for a long time, even before the advent of listed options, for it is known to be a valuable contrary indicator. When too many people are bullish (when they are buying too many calls), the contrarians short the market because the majority is usually wrong. Similarly, when too many traders are bearish and buying puts, then a contrarian can attempt to quantify his measurements. The general pattens to compare are shown in figure 4.20. When the put-call ration is at a high level, a lot of puts are being bought, and that indicates a market buy. Then, the put-call ratio declines while the market is rallying. Eventually, bullish sentiment becomes strong, and the put-call ratio bottoms just as the market is making a top. After that, the put-call ratio rises while the market is falling, until the whole cycle begins again...." His calculations are usually based on indexes or overall equity-only put-call ratio: "....As the name implies, this ratio is calculated by using the volume of all stock options. You can also combine the index and equity-only ratios to arrive at a total put-call ratio. These are the most reliable ratios because there is a lot of option volume each day in these categories. If we were to calculate the put-call ratio on an individual stock, there would normally be so little volume that the figure would be quite distorted and would not be useful in predicting the direction of the stock's movement. Very active equities such as Intel or IBM might be exceptions, but even with those, there may be little correlation between the put-call ratio and the direction of the trend in the stock." Quite frankly, I don't know how much significance I would attach to the large number of puts. Oh, here is an interesting site someone posted on another thread:http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi Try this with Sunrise. I'd be interested to know what you make of it. Regards, Jay