To: pat mudge who wrote (418 ) 5/25/1999 5:46:00 AM From: lml Respond to of 2347
Could this be weighing on the stock? No. This is old news that just won't go away. What Steve Case & his ISP buddies fail to comprehend is the overriding policy of the FCC to create competition along the "last mile." That competition emanating from the MSOs as well as CLECs. The MSOs DO NOT, (I repeat, Steve, DO NOT) have a monopoly over broadband access into the home. The key to this analysis is not to view the issues @ the present time, but in the future as deployment of broadband to the home becomes ubiquitous. Granted, today most people don't have DSL as an alternative to cable access, but since when is cable access available to the masses? Fast forward a couple years to 2001-02. Now if some die-hard AOL subscriber wants direct AOL broadband access he/she can choose various DSL providers that AOL will have partnering arrangements with to access AOL directly. OTOH, if he/she insists on cable access, Steve will just have to settle with offering AOL's "bring your own access" -- unless Steve is willing to bargain for access with the likes of Armstrong of T & Roberts of CMCSA. It is evident that Steve just wants a free lunch -- & the FCC & DOJ are not about to give it to him because of current overriding policy of encouraging competition within the teleco local loop. So, this article is not the reason for the stock's cont'd decline. Let's just say that the stock's present downward momentum was not timely with overall market sentiment today. I dunno what the reason is for the major sell off that has taken place. My guess is there has been some significant selling by some insiders & early investors wishing to lock in profits, not in face of CMTO's demise, but perhaps with a view that with slightly narrowing profit margins & the typical summer slowdown approaching, now was a good time to lock in profits. Perhaps a competitor is about to strike a deal with a major MSO. I just dunno.