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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (7514)	5/25/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Frederick, I like the way you are thinking. And you are correct about the problems in traditional markets. . and in looking for one that is moving. It is likewise true that in the summer months movie theatres, amusement parks, moving companies, Dairy Queens and bathing suit manufacturers do well. The problem with going that direction is that each of those varied industries follows a different seasonal cycle. . .so some already have the summer earnings built into their prices. And it also steers us toward a sort of valuation of companies that, in the face of EBAY, AMZN and ATHM, seems rather quaint. . . earnings based valuations WILL most certainly make a comeback very soon. In a few weeks, many will be trying to place some sort of future earnings template on the more reasonably priced internets, trying to decipher a way of valuating them in traditional means. And we should. But by Halloween all valuation will probably be thrown out the window and the tulip craze-like internet bubble will once again continue. I am going cash for a while. Having cash makes it easier to buy the great companies on days when they get slaughtered. What we want to watch is for downgrades after the high-fliers have fallen. . .anything that puts the nails into the coffin. . .these are our buy signals. I don't presume for a second that the high-flying high-techs and internets won't return in full force. I am certain they will. After cashing out of INTC, one good thing to do is write yourself a check from your profits. Another is to pay down any escrows on mortgage accounts. . .or 20 percent credit cards. . .consumer finance [ever look at what you are REALLY paying for that furniture?] . . .now THERE is a return on investment based on SAVING money. What? Nobody out there has such high interest rate loans but me? Yeah right. Anyone that missed the Inets last fall and sat on the sidelines, should seriously be selecting their winners list and watching those companies for cold clear bottom indicators. Once these this start splitting in December, January, March, etc. . . the gains are incredible. . . and 5 baggers are not uncommon with the high flying internet stocks. DCLK, EXDS, RNWK gains were most amazing last year. There will be new winners along with old winners. We must collectively and individually select our group of winners, so that we are prepared to build positions when the time is right. Frederick, I like Dave and Busters. . .always have. . .not for just a summer play. . but once they get sufficient financing to get their stores into many more cities, I believe they will see a nice pop in their price. . .I like the profit margins especially. Great business model. I'm playing some pennies now and then, but don't suggest ANYONE do that unless they have been following the company they wish to invest for at least a year and are still please with their performance. OTC stocks can be VERY risky and it is easy to lose everything in a very very short time period. So it brings me back to cash. . . .nothing wrong with cash. Rande Is