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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3268)	5/25/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 5390

We have had this long-running discussion of whether it is a good policy to build alliances and promote cooperation with even your worst competititors (Nokia-Ericsson-Motorola model Yes we've had this discussion. I think to some extent it's the proverbial straw man. QCOM was/is the new kid on the block. The bigger kids will not allow it to join the gang unless it breaks down the front door and forces them to accept it as clubmember. I continue to believe QCOM has much better relations with others in mobile phone biz and other industries as well than you give them credit for. Vodfone is a good example for mobile and look at G* partners for a broader group. But you know this, I've stated it numerous times. You've mischaracterized this situation many times. Do you really believe that North American carriers are "backing away from QCOM as quickly as they can" when QCOM is their most important protector? So far, QCOM has not allowed WCDMA to entirely steamroll their operation. They seem to have done a good job presenting their view to the industry and have Vod as advocate, not some bit player. All that research you talk about is going into CDMA, be it WCDMA,cdma2000, whatever. You don't like that QCOM uses IPR as a weapon. Too bad. Every company uses whatever tools it has at its disposal. ERICY/NOKIA/wCDMA have slowed QCOM/IS95/DMA2000 but QCOM can hold them back as well. All told I'd say the new punk is holding its own pretty well. Show me some independent report which claims anything more than marginal superiority for WCDMA. I don't think you can. The reason is because the CDMA essentials are mostly QCOM, and because thse other ways of doing things, the timing etc don't do the job any better. And if they do, QCOM can adopt them too. It's understandable that the rest of the world is uneasy about using American satellites for synchronous GPS timing. That doesn't mean it makes sense does it, but it may, I really don't know. It's still very hard to see WCDMA as anything other than an attempt by the erstwhile industry leaders and cohorts to hijack QCOMs technology. It's my opinion that this attempt has been and will be partially successful in that they've prohibited QCOM from having the type of meteoric success they might have had without it, but it's only going to be partially successful. I think you'll be surprised at how CDMA by QCOM starts to demonstrate its superior spectral efficiency over other technologies before WCDMA ever hits the ground. And QCOMs experience and relationships count for heaps of research on the part of others. I do agree with you that if CDMAone/2000 and or WCDMA network sales do not take off soon then QCOM will have a tough time of it. And I'm somewhat disappointed at this ThinPhone rollout. Nokia is late, Motorola has no new models, this window of opportunuty will not last forever.. Dave

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3268)	5/25/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 5390

Tero - I'd say hell will freeze over before Motorola will start buying Qualcomm's chipsets after the lawsuits and bad blood over the Startac patent infringement issues. Everyone also said hell will freeze over before Ericcson will buy Qualcomm's infra-division after the lawsuits and bad blood over the patent infringement issues and all Ericcson's hype. But look what happens. Business is business, what ever will make the most money for Mot will be chosen. In the end the most cost effective systems will rule. GSM and TDMA will have to survive off their legacy systems, which are inherently inferior to what is available. Eventually, everything will be cdma, and cmda phones will have the gsm/tdma modes just like analog today. The big risk for the GSM world is that 2nd (and Q's 3rd gen) cdma will grow significanlty faster than people expect, especially when it's capabilites are demonstated late this year to consumers. Data will overload GSM/tdma systems. Problems already exist with ATT's system, wait until they have to compete with data! Cheaper and Better will win, GSM is toast! Caxton

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3268)	5/26/1999 4:19:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5390

Tero, you seem to see Qualcomm as some dog in the manger. <We have had this long-running discussion of whether it is a good policy to build alliances and promote cooperation with even your worst competititors (Nokia-Ericsson-Motorola model). Or whether it is smart to alienate most of the mobile telecom industry. And here we are, in May 1999. Qualcomm is still in opposition when all other mobile telecom companies agree on basic IPR issues over 3G solutions. They can still try to sabotage the entire W-CDMA project with its multi-billion dollar investments from both operators and mannufacturers. We can only guess how much good will that will gain them in the nascent W-CDMA industry. > Qualcomm has not alienated most of the mobile telecom industry. Even Ericy has bought Q! technology. I'm not aware now of any telephone company which has NOT signed up and paid for use of Q! technology. Q! has been totally inclusive, not exclusive. Qualcomm has built alliances all over the place. Even with the dreaded Microsoft, which others seem to see as some carnivorous dinosaur. Qualcomm is not in opposition to anyone now in IPR. Everyone has paid for and has the right to produce anything they please - Ericy can go ahead right now and produce their W-CDMA with no further reference to Qualcomm. UMTS can go ahead right now and set the W-CDMA standard anyplace the members agree. Sure, Qualcomm isn't giving them any discounts. Tough luck. That's the price of the technology. The total IPRs only add up to about 20% anyway or maybe it's about 15%, same as GSM. UMTS and SETI or whoever should stop the 747 type whining. Qualcomm can't sabotage the W-CDMA plans at all. The main issue is that Vodafone and other operators have to agree with the proponents of W-CDMA what the technical parameters should be. If the W-CDMA gang go with their silly chip rate [4.0xx], coding and synchronisation, then they might not sell many handsets to operators. Look, Ericy bought with real money, the Qualcomm infrastructure division. That means access to cdmaOne and cdma2000. No W-CDMA. So, what do you think they planned to do with it? They aren't going to close it down. They are going to sell cdmaOne and as much of it as they can. They are going to sell as much cdma2000 as they can too. They might blend the two but make a few bells and whistles on the W-CDMA so they can produce them both there but sell a few differences to NTT DoCoMo and the North American GSM crowd. Ericy can't mess around getting sales going. You are still fighting a war which was fought, finished and won by a KO by Qualcomm. Qualcomm is not standing in the way of W-CDMA any longer. Ericy has the deal consummated and they'll be starting as fast as they can. They'll be sending cdmaOne, cdma2000, W-CDMA in all directions. They'll keep on with GSM as hard as they can too. Maurice