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To: freeus who wrote (128398)	5/25/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: OLDTRADER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

RE:Freeus-"Celebrationous"?wbm

To: freeus who wrote (128398)	5/25/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Fwiw Here is my take on the market: As most of you know, I have felt that the likelihood of a rate increase was slim. After all the numbers are out and a change in fed bias has occurred I still feel this way. Over the past few days and weeks we have seen analysts say that the fed will raise rates as many as three times in the next year - this is bunk. However, it has served the analysts well. Why you ask? Its simple if you think about it for a moment. The fact is analysts are RISK MANAGERS. Because of this they seem to move in unison causing wild swings in quality stocks. These swings are NOT random!! At this point we have seen some real powerhouse stocks such as DELL, AOL, MSFT, INTC etc. get hit and hit hard. When this happens people are dumping fast and furiously creating opportunities for the analysts and the Companies they represent to get in on GREAT stocks at GREAT prices. The real test of this theory will come in June and July. My prediction is this: 1) Soon the inflation numbers wont look so bad thus creating a flurry of buying in the above mentioned large caps. 2) Upgrades by the analysts will follow with the reason being "valuation." This the very thing they are fear mongering right now. 3) After sucking up tech stocks at a torrid pace, in late July or early August we will start the same BS all over again. It may be %rates, Asia, Y2K or some other short term headline to justify all the cautionary comments but the result will be the same. The small guy will take it in the @$$ so the big boys can create value in great stocks and start the process all over again. All I can say is keep some powder dry so you can take advantage over the sector manipulation……I mean rotation. DON'T place all your money on this stock or any other. If I am correct you will want to own several of the above mentioned powerhouses on the next run. Just my Opinion