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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (20313)	5/25/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: james ball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

If AG raised rates it would generally take two steps before the market experienced a stumble. This reversal into X's in the DJBB (which by the way you P&fers are the only ones who know at this juncture) is a good sign but don't bet the ranch. We went back to 1994 where there was a similar time and the reversal lasted for a month or so and reversed down. It was trying to find a bottom until the last capitulation of the market which carried it down to the final bottom. In 1994 we did see much rotation and by April the high tech had bottomed and wes ready to rise while other sectors were ready to fall. Keep your eyes open and remember to manage your positions, drive as straight a line as possible. Tom d

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (20313)	5/25/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

Tommy i think AG got the desired effect by jawboning the markets down...i doubt he would raise rates in the face of a slowing economy and the slow but potential turn around of all those countries that have such fragile economies... Agreed. Namely.... Argentina... (I am willing to say, they will adopt the US Dollar as their own currency, sooner than most expect). If so, 1. the "evils" of devaluation dissapear, as now, they will have a currency that is strong, asset pricing will be dependant on how productive these assets are in terms of returns based on US dollars, as opposed to what local supremo decides to steal or squander from the local economy. 2. the politician's tricks become harder to hide. 3. "trade globalization" becomes easier, since the currency exchange risk is eliminated, or at least reduced to a point of a more visible risk, given the fact that local policies would still affect the competitiveness of local industries, in terms of what costs they would face based on specific social/fiscal policies. But the use of the US Dollar would stand in the shadows vigilant of collectivist policies. In essence "devaluations" would occur in specific products, (or industries), becoming less competitive. 4. if Argentina does take such measure... then Brazil and Mexico would follow easier, setting aside local "strong nationalist sentiments", particularly in Mexico, the country that is... "So far from god and sooooo close to the US!!" Similar, for other countries... Russia, Indonesia, Arkansas.....<g>