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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lizardK who wrote (5359)	5/25/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Noah re <<<<< If this current downturn ends up in a full-fledged short term correction of the magnitude of approx 10% or so on the NAZ/DOW/S&P,do you feel that BB's model will find this healthy as he stated a month or so ago, and set the stage for new highs or are we at the point of no return?? >>>>> Excellent question I've also pondered. Obviously it would depend where his indicators such as money supply, rising rates sentiment etc. are. My guess is though his model was getting close to a sell signal he said he had visibility through May so I assume he was looking for end of May data that could tip things to a sell or not. Given a substantial correction at this point I would think his indicators will still suggest we're in a bull market and the correction would be viewed as positive. I think the most dangerous scenario would be a rally back toward the highs while money supply growth is still deteriorating etc. The worse scenario would be if his model proves a little too specific and a bit too low in sensitivity causing him to have missed the start of a bear but the market really is not showing signs of heading into a bear at this point Marc

To: lizardK who wrote (5359)	5/25/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I think a correction is defined as 7% Ralph A defined it yesterday on CNBC as 5 to 10% and I have heard Bob say "up to 10%" where 10-20% becomes an "intermediate term correction". SPY is (129.5-138)/138 = -6.2% DJIA is (10531-11131)/11313 = -5.4% Give me a few hundred more points to get these into 7% and I'd sure feel alot better, but it looks like we have a correction on Ralph's A's definition if not quite yet Bob Brinker's. regards Kirk out PS Justa... SFAM! ??? easy come....easy go I suppose. First my BOWG profits evaporate now SFAM... Need to visit the pistol shop for a new model to sling! 8)