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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (45427)	5/25/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Love Tuesday PM and the usual media crapola about the API numbers. Anyone consider the possibility that domestic storage numbers really mean nothing in a country currently importing close to 60% of its crude other than their effect on market psychology ? The API numbers really say nothing about domestic supply since all domestic crude that can be economically produced WILL be produced. Domestic production slowly and inexorably declines, about 10% in 1998 and the same expected this year. The API numbers only show the ebb and flow of imports and they can fluctuate for a lot of reasons other than supply/demand. The only place S/D nets out is worldwide. The problem there is that reliable info on worldwide stocks is non-existent. I prefer to try to estimate worldwide supply/demand thru available numbers and from that, estimate worldwide stock changes. In this most recent EIA mid-term international S/D report, OPEC 2Q production is estimated at 28.9 MMBD. This would lead to a very slight supply shortfall worldwide of .1 MMBD (72.9 supply vs 73.0 demand). eia.doe.gov Now look at the OPEC numbers for 2Q. The most recent numbers for April are 23.53 MMBD for OPEC plus 2.7 MMBD for Iraq, even though Iraq dropped to 2.1 MMBD recently, possibly due to their dilapidated oil infrastructure. infoseek.go.com The May OPEC numbers are expected to decline from April. Lets estimate 26.0 MMBD May for OPEC including Iraq. EIA estimates for non-OPEC 2Q production is a flat to slightly declining 44 MMBD and possibly less according to this... biz.yahoo.com Thats total WW supply around 70 MMBD. Current EIA demand estimates for 2Q are 73 MMBD and are being slowly increased as Asia recovers. I see a significant supply shortfall of 2 - 3 MMBD worldwide RIGHT NOW. And then there is the vacation driving season starting in three days.. Am I missing something ? I believe the numbers include internal usage by exporters. John