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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elvisdoc who wrote (2945)	5/25/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4467

-OT- re: NITE take on it now? The last buy was not well timed. Did not wait for it to correct to the 50 day MA. Then, compounded it by not stopping out quickly as I normally do. So as of today, a lot of damage has been done even since latest buy on Fri. Decided today to take a very dangerous strategy with NITE and PFE. Since the quick and easy loss was not taken, will hold. Both should get a nice sharp rally- NITE more so. NITE should still show spectacular engs. for the quarter. Stocks with tremendous earnings momentum don't usually go down and stay down. On that rally will re-evaluate. Risky strategy, as an essential key to winning is keeping losses small. YHOO and other big name I-net stocks should get a rally soon. [The problem is, that if there are even one or two days like so far this week, the rally would come from even lower prices. As with NITE, holding is still a risky strategy in this environment. Tough call. Alan, Agree to some extent that mutual funds could be buyers. Would be confined to mostly the big "blue chip" internet names, and I question their buying power. Mutual fund inflows have been much smaller this year as the individual has decided to buy individual stocks [many, I-Net stocks- where the biggest problem is]. I suspect the kind of funds that would be buyers have low cash levels and could be very limited in firepower, as they know that if this decline continues, they could be hit with redemptions and need some cash to meet them. Could help, but only for a short time I suspect. In March and April margin debt increased by $40B or 30% [at exactly the wrong time!] An unprecedented amount both in $ terms and % terms for a two month period. Now it's just waiting to be unwound in what could be a very disorderly manner. The only question is when. Best guess is either almost immediately it will start in earnest, or, there is a rebound rally starting very soon, there will be selling into it, it will turn down again, then the selling will accelerate and the margin clerks will be working 'til late at night. Mike