Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (2995)	5/25/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10280

David and David, My question regarding exit has little to do with long term holding. I am more concerned about the TA aspect of the stock movement. I ( and quite a few longs here) have been fooled to believe we have reached the bottom one time too many in this past few months(weeks). The real question is , is 55 the real bottom or is it because it had dropped too fast intraday and hence the rebound (like the one we have yesterday from 65) only to see 55 today. Who is to say, it cannot go to 50 ? What can keep this stock afloat in this kind of market ? As such, I look at adding position at this point as being short term tradings instead of long term investing. I guess I have been wrong about the bottom one time too many . I also do not like this market. A broker friend told me he expect DOW to go to 9000 or so, soon. Personnally, I think the drop of SEPR has zip to do with the anti-IgA news at this point. I have a separate question in the next post.

To: David Howe who wrote (2995)	5/25/1999 10:24:00 PM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

David, Have you ever consider a WORST case scenario on SEPR earning and price of stock ? I mean WORST case. Seems to me your model assumes a lot. (1) You assume that the ICE will work out better than the parental drug when you assign a earning value to the ICE but we don't know that. (2) Another assumption is that if it is better, the consumer will pay up and SEPR can successfully market them. Even in this case, the expenditure may be much more than you have allowed for so far. By worst case scenario, I mean a very hard nosed look at each of the drugs and give an estimate(a number) for the probability of it works better base on what is currently known and another probability on it s being successfully launched. For example,what if we assume DCL is not that much better than Claritin.(Same goes for Prozac). In this case of worst scenario,the ICE is not much better, but SGP still try to push it. How much earning do we have in the next few years when the SGP patent still prevents competition. and there after when generic enters the market and SGP competes on price ? If we apply that logic, may be we can assign a "bottom" value for SEPR.

To: David Howe who wrote (2995)	5/25/1999 10:29:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

<Totally ridiculous.> Well, thats good to know, thats why I'm asking...it would be greatly appreciated if you to explain yourself in a quick paragraph if possible... it would also create on more buyer in the stock if you care. Also I'd like to hear it from Vandelay, since I'm hearing IgE all over the street. JNJ news obviously brought in all sorts of selling... but IMO thats just not this kind of news. Maybe just panic. DAK