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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (45452)	5/25/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bankers Trust raises oil price forecast Financial Times, May 24 By Nicholas Leonard BP Amoco and Shell were among the best performers in the London stock market on Monday on renewed hopes that the price of oil has now established a new base for itself at a level some 50 per cent higher than that prevailing just three months ago. BT Alex Brown, the London broker offshoot of Bankers Trust, said it had increased its estimate of the likely average price for Brent crude from a previous figure of $13.50 a barrel to $15, which is very close to recent actual trading levels. There is a growing faith among dealers in the commitment of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to maintain the cuts in output which they introduced at the beginning of April and that confidence was underpinned on Monday with news that Russia, in the current three month period, would be voluntarily producing less than in the final quarter of 1998. The short-term outlook for both the oil price and for oil shares continues to be overshadowed, however, by uncertain factors such as the fluctuating level of inventories in both the US and Europe, the unpredictable evolution of the Iraqi situation, and the commercial pressures on the refining sector of the industry.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (45452)	5/27/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

< I was wondering where Slider went... > ...still on vacation - just checking in ; not much computer time of late. OPEC seems to really be serious about banging the drum that they will comply at levels meeting, or exceeding expectations. They keep talking about $20 Brent. June's release of May compliance #'s has to be good. Even positive comments on Venezeula holding the line lately. I still love Domestic Natural Gas producers at a 3:1 weighting to drillers & service companies; untill we fall below 320 M boe in storage and rise above 135 offshore GOM rigs -trending to 150. When we hit those numbers - the oilpatch will be back to work. Bought some GIFI here at $10 & change - 50% off of ''recent'' highs - with the Petronius contract in hand - go figure.... ???? Analysts estimates have been lowered - I think GIFI is talking down expectations and I smell ''earnings surprise'' brewing later this year - real, real cheap given this enviroment and it's recent highs. BULL - VRC in comparison to its peers here, sub $9 is tempting - $8 is a Strong BUY & gives an incentive to wait for that backlog to be repaired .... want GLBL a little cheaper here, was hoping for a VTS selloff on the downgrade to $14ish, that may have been merely wishfull thinking. Bought more RIG here of late - again, I believe RIG is the best buy in the patch; many mutual funds and institutions can NOT own a foreign registered/incorporated company (Cayman Islands) and have to steadilly dump and sell out of RIG - it's an anomaly buying opportunity imho (I'm loaded). There are still some screaming buys in Nat Gas stocks.... still some homework that needs to be done in this area imho... ******************************************************************************* PS fwiw; Deutsche Banks Oil analysts carry a lot of weight and credibility on the Street; and are followed by many hedge funds. Here is the "Bear case" ... << Despite the day's gains, the market remains weighed down by a big stock overhang, analysts said. The Deutsche Bank Energy Group in New York said it calculates that inventories in the West's OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) member nations are still approximately 170 million barrels above normal. The Paris-based OECD has 29 largely industrialized member nations. ''While it appears that OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) may have prevented a dramatic inventory build in the second quarter by reducing output, we are not convinced that oil inventories will decline in the current period,'' said Deutsche Bank energy analyst Michael Young. ''Depending on how demand unfolds, we still project that oil inventories could increase by upwards of 1.0 million barrels per day in the second quarter,'' he said. Refining and marketing margins will remain under pressure because of the cumbersome inventory picture and less than robust demand, he said. ''Crude oil prices may trade trade sideways to down over the next several months as oil markets evaluate and adjust to these factors,'' he said.>> ****************************************************************************** ...this guy is predicting a 1.0 Million boe per day inventory ''build'' in Q2 - that's 30 Million boe - moving us back up to 365 M boe ? .... I just do not see that.... don't know where this guy sees a 30 M boe build from ? I could see us hovering around 335 M boe here - and if we crack 320-325 M boe - BAMM ! - we're off to the races... The Deutsche analyst has to be predicting OPEC cheating, or he's just totally off the page in predicting demand imho...???? Lets see if the Street will take us on a breakout of OSX 80-85+ here on the June reporting of May compliance #'s for OPEC... With all the OPEC posturing and table pounding on $20 Brent - I have to believe that the OPEC compliance will be solid here... Gary B - what are the EW's saying here ?