Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (81647)	5/26/1999 9:56:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

My views on AMD and the K7. 1) They have become a one-trick pony. They've pretty much proven they can't make money on the low end. If boxmakers don't a. Adopt the K7 in a big way and b. Find a marketing way to sell HIGH END PCs with AMD you can stick a fork in AMD - they're done. 2) AMD's only previous way to get boxmakers to take their chips a. Drop the price hard. *REAL* hard. Since this is pretty clearly AMD's last stand the boxmakers will be negotiating with the whip hand. Since AMD MUST get the chip into boxes, the price is gonna be real flexible. 3) Assuming that AMD gets past the first two hurdles, they have to produce with good yields, bin splits, volumes - issues that are not their traditional long suits Scumbria notwithstanding. And even AMD indicates that they won't have appreciable volume till Dresden gets rolling with copper and .18 - itself a moderate risk. Not even dealing with AMD's financial quagmire 'cause they might pull a financial rabbit (spelled junk bond or share dilution) out of the hat. But timing is everything in those games and you have to be lucky to go to market with everything riding on the outcome and come up with a straight flush. Long shots do come in (see the Kentucky Derby '99) but not very often. AMD stock should bounce around like a roman candle skooting along a rocky plain. But remember the words of Benjamin Ghaham - dean of stock analysis - "in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term the market is a weighing machine". Bottom line - hard to see any real profits (if they materialize) till Q1 of 2000. Day traders and speculators will have a field day - investors will avoid like the plague. Rumors and hype will rule the day. Volatility, here we come.