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Technology Stocks : LORAL -- Political Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill who wrote (824)	5/28/1999 6:04:00 PM
From: Drew Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 880

This was published today on the editorial page of The Philadelphia Inquirer. phillynews.com Trudy Rubin / Worldview China is a great power but not a great military threat, and the release of the Cox report hasn't changed that. Don't force a confrontation Why is it so hard for Americans to maintain a level-headed relationship with China? Since the release of the Cox commission report on Monday charging Beijing with 20 years of nuclear spying, Congress is hyperventilating, as if the Chinese were on the verge of incinerating New York. Our cities are at risk, shrills California Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. "We need to completely reevaluate our relationship with the People's Republic of China," says the normally responsible Nebraska Republican Rep. Doug Bereuter. Excuse me! I've read through the 900 pages of this document (which looks like a glossy corporate report), and you needn't panic. There's little evidence to support the conclusion that stolen secrets have put Chinese design of nuclear weapons "on a par with our own." There's even less to show why some legislators claim we are in imminent peril. No doubt China is striving aggressively to collect U.S. military and commercial intelligence, by means both legal and illegal. But the handling of the Cox report reveals as much about us as it does about them. "Congress is doing a good job of scaring the American people without educating them, " says Stan Norris, a noted expert on Chinese nuclear designs and systems. "Underneath the inflammatory assertions is a lot of ambiguity about what transpired, what was taken, if China did anything with it." The report's most sensational charge is that the Chinese filched the design of a W-88 nuclear warhead (more than a decade ago) that would enable them to miniaturize nuclear weapons to put on a new generation of missiles. But this charge is undercut by a bizarre revelation. Get this: The document from which the CIA learned of the theft was brought to the agency voluntarily - by a Chinese agent who was sent by Beijing's intelligence services. Was Beijing tricking us? This shocker is never explored. Instead, the report is filled with worst-case predictions that stolen data will enable Chinese nuclear forces to threaten U.S. interests. So far, the facts don't support the threat scenario. The United States has 7,000 strategic nuclear weapons capable of hitting China. Beijing has about 20 capable of hitting us. They have no long-range bombers. We have 18 ballistic missile subs; they have one. This kind of nuclear force could be creamed by Britain, never mind the United States. And whatever they've stolen, the Chinese haven't done much with it (even though the most significant thefts appear to have occurred in the 1970s and 1980s). An independent team of experts appointed by the CIA to assess the impact of Chinese nuclear spying came to this conclusion: "To date, the aggressive Chinese collection effort has not resulted in any apparent modernization of their deployed strategic force or any new nuclear weapons deployment." So, what's going in Congress? Why can't a few legislators stand up and tell the public, "Great powers spy on each other"? As for poaching U.S. technology, we are the globe's top source, and everyone is trying. In a cyber-age, with information pouring out of every Web site, secrets are harder to keep. China is an emerging power with a backward military. Of course, Beijing wants to modernize its armed forces and will try all means to do so. Why should we act so surprised? On China's borders are nuclear-armed India, Pakistan, North Korea and Russia, not to mention Japan, which could go nuclear if America ever pulls back from Asia. If we label China the enemy (not to mention bomb its embassy in Belgrade), why shouldn't Beijing be thinking about its defensive nuclear posture? China's nukes are, in fact, meant to hit back against a nuclear attacker. Since we are planning to build a missile-defense system, Beijing must decide whether to build up its nuclear forces. None of these considerations enter into the Cox report. They would be too complex. The China-bashers prize simplicity. So let's make it simple. Of course, we should protect our labs and secrets; no one should be able to transfer classified data onto a disk and walk out the door. But spying charges do not require us to stop World Trade Organization talks or to refrain from punishing those responsible for bombing the Chinese embassy. China is not our enemy - yet. Nor is it our buddy. It is a great power-in-the-making, with whom we share interests, and with whom we will have problems. So far, Chinese leaders have not made nuclear modernization a top priority. Congress should take care lest it push them to make that priority higher. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Trudy Rubin's column appears on Wednesdays and Fridays. Her e-mail address is trubin@phillynews.com