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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (14999)	5/26/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Daflye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

CNBC just flashed the 5/28/99 Investors Intel sentiment thingy. Bulls up slightly to 60.9% from 60.7% Bears down to 28.6% from 28.7% Or something like that, don't seem to be enough bears. Also a good point from James Cramer at thestreet.com. My apologies to those that dislike the guy but he does make a good arguement for a rally here. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Striking Out the Money Managers By James J. Cramer 5/26/99 9:25 AM ET My favorite momentum indicator, the IBD Mutual Fund Index, is in danger of going negative. This development, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average still in the high teens for the year, is stunning. No, make that shocking. It is the equivalent of every team in a 23-team league playing less than .500 ball. Unimaginable. Remember, this index is a compilation of the best money managers around. We have Alger, John Hancock, Pimco and Strong. There's Brandywine, Berger and T. Rowe Price. Contra, American Ultra, Putnam and Janus. These are the hitters. These are the guys that, earlier this year, were hitting the ball out of the park. Some of these guys were up 25, 30, 40%. They were headed to McGwire-like years. Now it is all in cinders. Some of these guys' numbers are so terrible that they should be sent to double-A ball. Others are probably on the disabled list and we just don't know it. This stunning decline indicates two things. One is that everybody is long tech, because it is indeed tech that is getting its head slammed. Second, individuals, even with this terrible recent tape, aren't going to give more money to these guys. They can do it better themselves. Short term, this index is severely oversold. I know that an index such as this technically can't be oversold. It is not a stock. But I do find that some of these managers panic when things get this bad and, in a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, start buying their stocks to move back their performance. This weird buy-to-save-my-year pattern can't be proved. But that doesn't make it lacking in rigor. It happens. It is another reason why I am growing more bullish, short term. These firms have the firepower to make themselves right on a short-term basis. They have done so for THIS WHOLE DECADE. They will attempt to do it now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cheers, D

To: donald sew who wrote (14999)	5/26/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don: In my opinion, this market should provide us with at least 300 points on the upside for the INDU. That is a "should." This "rally" is two days overdue but I have very strong buy signals. After the rally is done, we should pay a visit to INDU 9900 or so. We have already broken through a key support level that should get us there. If the DOT stocks cannot gain some equilibrium, we should have the savage one-day move down that I thought was possible.

To: donald sew who wrote (14999)	5/26/1999 12:31:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Bonds Look to Next Weeks Data Bonds are trading lower this morning despite a favorable durable goods report. Fear over next weeks NAPM and unemployment reports is putting a ceiling on bond prices. Thirty-year bonds are down 8/32, yield 5.76%. Two-year notes are down 2/32, yield 5.29%. Durable good orders for April fell 2.3%. Expectations were for a rise of .4%. Declines in autos and civilian aircraft orders pushed the index lower. Ex-transportation durable good orders rose .9%. Non-defense capital good orders ex-aircraft, a barometer of future spending, rose .3%. Bonds initially retraced some of their losses on the data, but have since resumed their decline. The euro has fallen to a new low against the dollar, 1.0520. The European Union (EU) has told Italy, the euro zones third largest economy, they do not have to meet their budget deficit of 2.0% of GDP. Italy's deficit can now rise to 2.4% of GDP. There is concern the EU has lost its will to keep budget deficits down in the euro zone. It is also believed the European Central Bank (ECB) will not step in to support the euro. In other news, France, the euro zones second largest economy; reported manufacturing good sales fell .2%. A further sign of weakening demand. The Treasury will auction $15 billion two-year notes today. Given the uncertainty over Fed policy, demand may be tepid. Treasury Secretary Rubin is the only speaker scheduled today. Thursday will bring data on initial jobless claims and the first revision to first quarter GDP. Have a great day. bonds-online.com