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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (23273)	5/26/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Sure I lose - but I have an iron rule - if I buy wrong, I sell immediately (and limit my loss to 1/16 - 1/4 points). I may buy several times and sell - losing 1/16 - 1/4 points along the way. However, I do try to wait for what looks to me like a bottom, even if it's temporary. My reasoning is actually extremely simple. I look at MSFT. I know how that internally it's very strong - I've been saying this since Friday. But I also am aware of market risk - which I've been pointing out. Now, today I looked at MSFT go to 75 1/2 - that was a significant loss - now here's my reasoning: how likely is it that MSFT will go even lower? It is already very low for the day - what are the chances it will go even lower? Very low. So I buy, even if I'm wrong, I'll sell for 1/8 loss and try again. But 90% of the time, it's the bottom. Same with CMGI - it lost almost 20 points on the day - what the HELL are the chances it'll lose even more today? Low - so I buy! Even if I buy several times and accumulate 2-3 1/4 point losses, I eventually find the bottom, at a very low cost - and the rocket up more than makes up for the loss. Simple! Plus, I do try to predict market bottoms. When people were optimistic about MSFT in the 80's and high 70's that the bottom has been reached (including you<ggg>) I kept warning that the bottom is not here yet. Remember my post about SFE? If you read it again, you'll see I said exactly what I did: SFE will sell off from where it was (95 or so), it won't hold 90, I'll be buying in the low 70's (today qualified!), and I'd back up the truck if it hit mid 60's. Yesterday, I said QCOM and PFE looked good. So when they sold off today, they looked even better. MSFT I kept saying is due for a technical bounce - and when it sold off, I went for it to grab the bounce. Now I loaded up my trading positions and I'm happy. I can scan the boards to guage investor sentiment (I didn't like what I saw on the CMGI board yesterday, and got into a fight with one poster, but it lead me to short CMGI, today I bought as I said I would). So, my system is really extremely simple. This is all a lot of fun - if it weren't I wouldn't be trading. Morgan