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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (5383)	5/26/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally, Of especial interest was the closing line in that story: The increase in March orders was revised down* to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent previously.* i.e. Part of the input that the Fed had when it announced its tightening bias was wrong; and would support easing or maintaining a neutral bias. The trend is sharply down in terms of stuff that the Consumer is buying. i.e. - this Stock Market Wealth effect doesn't seem to be quite as strong as the Fed was fearing. But there are no numbers to quantify the Fed's fears, so that's just my opinion. And finally, IMO, the increased strength that we've been seeing is being provided out of improved productivity rather than sucking up existing capacity. i.e. - as long as the capacity utilization remains in the very low 80% range, companies won't have pricing power and there'll be no inflation to speak of. My inflation fear would come if Capacity Utilization exceeded 86% and was continuing to climb. At 91%, I'd be in cash (probably in a sock under my mattress). ;-) Take care, Ian.