To: Goodboy who wrote (4910 ) 5/27/1999 10:36:00 AM From: CommSatMan Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
Goodboy. While many may not like your predictions, I think that you are right on with the scenario that there will be another buying opportunity for G*. Here's the way I see it. G* is making a lot of the same mistakes that Iridium did in setting user expectations. Using a first generation satellite phone is a lot different than using a terrestrial cellular phone. The user will get the phone and try to use it like a terrestrial cellular and he will have some problems. There will be calls that don't get connected and he will suffer more than normal dropped calls. For example, most users won't realize the importance of having the antenna fully extended. Iridium found out the hard way that people don't read instruction books. Maybe a video would work. Anyway, I see initial disappointment in the product and a mini crash in the stock. However, I still think that G* has a basically sound business plan and they will scramble and recover, but not without some growing pain. Speaking of user expectations, it is easy to see that users have been spoiled with the latest terrestrial cellular. For example, when the first cellular phones came out, they cost about $3000. At the time, you heard about the cost, but it was not in the same negative vein of today. To have the conveinence and the flexibility was expensive and like all electronic products, everybody knew that as demand increased the cost would come down. This model has changed because of the terrestrial infrastructure and I think Iridium missed that fact. It cost them dearly. I hope G* recognizes that the marketing models for satellite phones must be different than terrestrial. CSM