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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fine who wrote (2778)	5/26/1999 11:58:00 PM
From: Paul Fine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

I posted this on Yahoo: This may be repetitive for some of you, but I know others have stopped reading the Yahoo thread since the Hockey idiots have flooded the Board: "IMO, any "summer lull" will have to be driven by concerns over interest rates. So place your bets based on your expectation of possible action by the Fed. Personally, I don't think the Fed will raise rates unless it becomes glaringly necessary, due to concerns by Greenspan about impacting the Nov presidential elections(remember: "its the economy, stupid"?). I do think we may see the statement made at future FMOC meetings that the Fed is "carefully watching" inflationary signs, which is meant to convey a bias towards tightening vs a neutral stance. This may slow things down without having to actually take the controversial step of raising rates. If you think techs will be higher sometime in the next 12 months, then go ahead and invest more now. As for your concern that your new money would be "dead money" over the summer, I would point to the analogy that money is like grass; it doesn't die over a hot summer, it merely goes dormant until things cool down and we get alittle rain. Droughts tend to be temporary(like last Sept-Oct). Put new money into techs(internet?) now if you wish. But if your investing timeline is measured in weeks or months, investing is a crap shoot. As of yesterday, Yahoo was down about 49% from its 52 week high. When it was only down 10%, aggressive investors bought, afraid they would miss the one day buying opportunity. When it fell to -25%, value investors bought, thinking the major correction was over and the stock was fairly valued. When it fell -40%, bottom feeders bought, sure that the stock couldn't go any lower. The morals to the story are that: 1. No one has a crystal ball(including me). 2. The only people who catch falling knives successfully on a regular basis work in the circus. 3. The only price a stock cannot fall below is $0(naked options are worse!!). 4. No stock goes straight up all the time; someone always gets scared and sells(not everyone who doubles their money holds for the 4-bagger). 5. Most major buying opportunities are only visible in the rearview mirror. The final good news about this week's action: The losses in the price of NT stock got smaller each day on less than average vol. Paul "