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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26569)	5/27/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Look at this interesting chart.. quote.yahoo.com^SPC&d=5d Now I think 1300-1305 area has been a minor support on the way down to 1278, I would think that 1318 is a clear resistance now and 1328 the next, if we take these out we go back to 1355 in few sessions, we fail at these levels we come back to test 1292 or even 1250 support but BKX will be key here if 850 is solidly maintained we go higher from here to 872 we have only air between 852 and 872, quote.yahoo.com the test will be perfect, if BKX turns corner we may see 1328 been taken out, if BKX fails at 850 once again 800 will again be on cards but I would suspect this will only happen on back of bad economic or strategic number.. NDX 1960 test was below my 1980 level but look at this rebound quote.yahoo.com^NDX&d=5d 2050 is a small resistance once this is taken out I see 2120 as the next target if we fail at 2020 we will see big weakness again, read it with BKX closely.. ^IXIC symbol for COMP on Yahoo is one of the most important charts..2320-30 area goes back to some time since last three months it is a solid support, last night we turned up from 2339 well below my 2360 but as you know inter-day we can go down and spend less than one hour and come back up with BKX showing signs of strength that test of 2339 was a great test of lows...2490-2500 remains a solid obstacle hard to penetrate until inflation worries are over... but so far so good to pick a small drop shorted it and long from the bottom.. quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=3mm Global markets as I predicted were positive and probably will remain positive, the spillover impact never materialized. I had clearly outlined that anyone expecting that domino of global crises will be severely depressed that exactly happened, I am closely watching it the cycles of US and Global markets are at divergent pattern, the shorts of yesterday would find the going difficult as ASEA and Europe turn positive in the morning, that Oct 97 late night watching for big falls in ASEA is all over.. quote.yahoo.com Predictions need to be back tested, if they don't add up, it is better to wind up the shop.. I do it regularly and I think that is very very important to see if magic works, if ones logic gains currency..

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26569)	5/27/1999 4:20:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

May 27 1999--Budget deficit fears see euro at record low BY ALASDAIR MURRAY ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT Britain's trade gap widens to a record £7.1 billion THE euro slumped to a record low against the dollar yesterday as concerns mounted that the fragile health of the European economy may be beginning to take a toll of government budget deficits. The euro fell through the key psychological level of $1.05 with the currency's losses compounded by further evidence that the European Central Bank has no intention of intervening in the markets at this stage. Gold also tumbled to a 20-year low as the market digested Eddie George's robust defence of Britain's planned gold sales. The euro fell nearly 1 per cent across the day, tumbling from $1.0625 to a low of $1.0464. It has now lost nearly 12 per cent of its value against the dollar since its launch at the beginning of the year. The euro also lost ground against the pound, sliding from 66.23p to 65.54p but stopped short of the record low of 65.14p established earlier this month. The dollar also made modest gains against the pound closing at $1.5967 from $1.6015. Traders said the European Central Bank's reluctance to intervene was only tempting the market to send the euro lower, especially with an improved performance on Wall Street yesterday helping to underpin the dollar. Yves-Thibault de Silguy, acting European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, and Antonio de Sousa, Governor of the Bank of Portugal, added their support to the ECB's policy of "benign neglect" insisting that the euro was not at worrying levels. The suggestion that Italy will be allowed to loosen its budget deficit target for this year also undermined market confidence in the single currency. Analysts expressed concern that it could mark the first step towards a weakening of the fiscal stability pact, with the budget deficit targets of both France and particularly Germany also regarded as vulnerable to a slowdown in growth. Early trading falls had been triggered by comments from Wim Duisenberg, President of the ECB, and Hans Eichel, the German Finance Minister. In an interview due to be published today, Mr Duisenberg said he saw no immediate danger that the decline in the euro was threatening the ECB's inflation target. His comments were supported by Herr Eichel who insisted there was no "acute need" for intervention. In the precious metal markets, gold slipped to $269.50 an ounce - its lowest level since May 1979 - after Mr George offered strong support to the Government's decision to sell off half of Britain's gold reserves. Britain's trade gap widens to a record £7.1 billion THE strong pound has sent the UK trade deficit soaring to its highest level since records began (Lea Paterson writes). A sharp fall in exports to Europe helped to push the global deficit on traded goods to a record £7.1 billion in the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. In March alone, the trade deficit with the EU topped £1 billion, the highest monthly figure since July 1990. Exports to Europe fell to 18-month lows, while import volumes were at record highs. A decline in the quarterly oil surplus to a six-year low of £538 million contributed to the disappointing trade figures. The quarterly surplus on traded services dropped to £2.6 billion, taking the UK's combined goods and services deficit to £4.6 billion, a nine-year high. There were, however, signs of a nascent recovery in non-EU trade. The April deficit on traded goods was a better-than-expected £1.1 billion.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26569)	5/27/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

I see a close below 1292 we could not maintain the move above 1302, however it was DOW that sold out solid, NDX and COMP really did not budge,rather SOX was higher, for me it is perfectly within context of my strategy where I have repeatedly asserted that Techs and DOW would diverge, cyclicals will be hardest hit where Techs will take off, I see my NDX 2020 support intact, with DOW down 200 plus points NDX was off by 8 points, that in term of market tells me that leadership was not slaughtered, it was for outside a broad sell off for insiders just a blip, I had to get out of my newly established positions at break of 1292, more to do with discipline I will re-enter as I think that BKX is oversold and will progress. I left my AOL MER C AMZN as is. SOX support was not only held but we saw good positive movement in SOX.. above 395 SOX is a good solid buy. DOT revisited the lows but selling momentum in pits on SPM and fluid NDX options was just not available, it was difficult to cover the spread as market listlessly drifted down, that indicates to me lack of selling, it haad to be NDX and COMP if yesterday 1292 wa a decisive break. I am gooing to watch 1278 very closely and 2020 alongwith 382 on Techs if these supports are holding well we move back up above 1292 today, may be BKX at 820 will give that lift. MER closed at 83 a good indicator, I would consider that BKX will move soon and 750 puts and 860 calls for July can be a great play, on individual stocks I will certainly maintain my present positions on MER and C and would like to add MEL to the list, AXP is a good stock also. I would enter once 1302 is taken out once again on SPM, it is rather a safer strategy. NDX 2020 remains a strong support, we should see that hold well if rebound is anticipted today below NDX 1992 full 62 points I think this SPM break will take us all the way to 1250 support, I expect that 2020 to hold well today plus minus 10 points, today global markets will do notice DOW sell off a little more and we may see some impact on opening which I would consider to be normal as Europe would like to see what happens to DOW, for simple reason DOW is the most important barometer whereas NDX and COMP are neglected, the 100 stocks with exorbitant P/E's have been responsible for underlying rally not the DOW stocks. COMP from lows of 1310 in Oct 98 has nearly gained 1000 points, a good 80% move up whereas DOW from 7200 lows has only gained 3500 points a near 50% move, if leaders are bid this market will surprise the shorts, the leaders have to break before a meaningful falls comes in, the Techs I have reiterated many a times will see a diverging pattern last night we saw manifestation of that very clearly, if BKX picks steam that divergence between may narrow a bit. DOW has the potential to move down to 9800 my oft stated level, but the hardest part of selling in Techs will only come if SOX PSE 372 and 500 supports are taken out, we may see some pressures today but momentum of selling was missing, I would like to add some puts if that momentum develops right now wesaw a loss of 20 points on SPM but without much of big volatility. I have now important 2020 support and if that holds even if we see 1278 on SPM we will bounce, that support need to be taken out, my strategy would be to watch the support and COMP at 2020 2380 area, SOX 382 and DOT retest of 550 if this market has to go up we may see a quick rebound after a qucik test, I will take the cue of the market from the most sensitive NDX index and 820 on BKX quote.yahoo.com^BKX&d=5d, I will not be surprised that we may have written this banking sector which now shows some life a bit too early, rumors of MER buying of a major lifted MER sharply.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26569)	6/9/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

May 26th SOX and 1318 1330 on SPM.......The only way I know about correctness of my posts is to see, did things materialise the way I thought them.... when everyone else was looking differently this was my post on direction of market and picking up of TECH stocks at 372. It is posts like this that makes fortunes.. from IQBAL LATIF on May 26 1999 11:17PM EST Here comes the bounce, 1292 and 1980 and 2360 SPM NDX COMP levels solidly held quote.yahoo.com and as stated if market has to move IDEA knows it a little in advance, we comment on market 12 hours early but look at these levels and look what market did, you just don't get better than this in the world of forecasting, Ike magic continues, no exotics only CW..Big claims backed by big performance with targets and with full knowledge of internal dynamics.... This thread is not only about a break down but as I had explained 1292 break will take a lot of doing that exactly happened,it is also about making a big trade as we move up my yesterday DOT was moved to 562 and 372 on SOX and BKX 840, a bounce of 550 I predicted, MER and otehrs i highlighted did extreemly well and I was in it as the bounce came in. A single close below it was a false break, now look at this forecast.. we write about market action a day early but hit the bulls eye.. I am right now looking at 1318 objective and 1330 as the top until circumstances change... I expect 1302 to hold and we take this thing to 1318 and extended to 1330 where we need some huge hedge against new positions, even if 1292 is taken out get out of the long calls and sell 2140's on NDX to purchase 1900 on NDX or 1330 on SPM to sell and 1250 to be longed only on a break of 1292 or 372 on SOX and 554 on DOT.. 832 on BKX... otherwise wait ofr the resistance at 1318 and 1330.. << I would as suggested earlier like a base for summer rally from the lows, it would be healthy for the momentum players if they can hold the fire and wait for the test of 800 500 on BKX DOT, but I would like to take advantage of the window of opportunity resulting from this huge drop, we will see a bounce off 550 a sell off again after a move up of 50 points like 612 on DOT and 1318 on SPM, if some one expects it is going to rocket up from lows I doubt it, market needs confirmation from macro-economic numbers right now it is few days until meaningful data convinces markets of its future course, for me right now it has to be a dead cat bounce until 625 on DOT is decisively taken out, those who want to take advantage of this dead cat bounce would need to be nimble but I would do nothing unless 1299 is taken out solidly for that bounce to materialize, what is a solid take out means, I like index to break its resistance and stay above for 45 minutes to one hour minimum. in our jargon of day trading 1 hour is a long basing period, again this is just to avoid whipsaw. >> SOX above 372.. <<I will think that we are at key supports on PSE 506 level, SOX 372, DOT 540, IIX 274, RUT 430. I will like to change my bias and will certainly go long by selling NDX puts 1840 and buying individual stock and the DOT index. I will like SOX to take out 385, I will be looking to go long MOT TXN LSI LRCX AMAT, if 372 holds and we move up to 385.>> And PSE will move if SOX moves... <<If SOX moves definitely PSE will show a good move I see no reason to go long EMC at 520 a shade above 20 days MA of PSE, CSCO will be my other choice and I will top it with NOK LU..>> MER is a great buy.. <<As SOX and PSE make the move BKX will see 810 area but above 840 MER JPM WFC C are great buys, however I don't believe in catching a falling knife let these indexes improve from these supports, I will keep a close eyes on RUT if we go through 430 we will see a huge sell program to test the supports, anyway we are below the 50 days MA on most of these stocks and indexes and certainly it is worth to keep entries very clearly defined.>> And selection in DOT.. <<As SOX and PSE make the move BKX will see 810 area but above 840 MER JPM WFC C are great buys, however I don't believe in catching a falling knife let these indexes improve from these supports, I will keep a close eyes on RUT if we go through 430 we will see a huge sell program to test the supports, anyway we are below the 50 days MA on most of these stocks and indexes and certainly it is worth to keep entries very clearly defined.>> Justification of a move.... <<I am looking at NDX 1980 and COMP 2380 as levels which should hold say plus minus 20 points also 1278 may be tested to run stops or 1250 if a huge sell program hits strong, but here is a level I would like my 1250 long puts bought for low price hedged with 1840 NDX puts I will be long near the money SPM puts and short 9% out on NDX, if market rallies I will like to leg out of 1250 longs at 1304 level and let the NDX puts run naked. Ideally this correction should run its course in next few days with a bounce now and a sell off again, or may be no bounce and sell big like 8th Oct or 27 Oct 98 and 97, I think DOW should test that 9800 level and a good probe of 1230 will give this market solid support for summer rally. The conditions of 27th and 8th do not exist, but a possibility has to be accounted for, that would take this retracement to incredible 1740, where we saw the break out back on 25-28th Oct 1998 we have never visited that area again, but it is an outside limit of my thought process, I would wait for that 1292 to be a false break today that gives me initial long signal.>>