To: IndioBlues who wrote (45590 ) 5/27/1999 5:21:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
HLX calls - but ''only $60,000 '' purchased though - that's why I sold half... I expected the phones to be ringing from Hedge Funds, and Institutional investors - the sniffing was being done today.... I would have expected to see $300-500,000 in nearterm calls being purchased - I wanted to see literally 10 times the call activity today that we saw , for me ''not'' to sell/take ''some'' profits. To be candid - a mere $60,000 is not indicative of a buyout - make that indicative of news leaking, or analyst speculation of a buyout. That is individual investor money - not hedge fund/Institutional traders There are 4-5 Hedge Funds well versed in the Oilpatch that would throw 3-4-5 times that money out there if they sensed something... maybe the Big 'Un is the ''Buyout Bloodhound''.... he will be the ''Man'' if this happens.... (we allready know he is the ''man'' - now the world will know VBG). Now, this moderate call option activity does NOT mean that there is no buyout/merger - only that thse guys have tight lips if there is.... and when you think about it; if it is real, real close - there would be tight lips {VBG} - tomorrow could be the huge call option volume day... it will be interesting... HLX even if it sells off to $6ish again - is still real, real cheap here today. Again - no way that HLX isn't a $10-12 stock by Q1-2 2000 ''if'' we see a reasonable Oilpatch recovery here . So thats still a 25-50% upside from here... any buyout has to be near $12ish as well. DOG - hope you nailed this one.... looking forward to FGI buying the other half of my HLX position; and then I'll be buying a boatload of cheap RIG & DO calls.... that will be my ''hammer'' - RIG is an anomaly here.... the Oilpatch can NOT recover and not have a strong deepwater recovery as well... all this buy shallow water jack up drillers is overdone imho - I think they are fairly, to even slightly overvalued right here (not longterm) - personally; I will buy the hell out of RIG/DO here and I will add to the jack up drillers (FLC ESV et al) upon the actual turn fundamentally - ie: 135-150 GOM rigs at work, resulting in the enviroment for higher dayrates .... Watching TMAR if it moves into the mid $6's here.... VRC any weaker is looking good as well - didn't like it at $10-12 - but $8 ish and under... have to buy strongly... GLBL $8/9ish if we see it as well - load the boat... PS - is FLC ''waffling'' here {VBG} ??? The ''Street'' will NOT run FLC up untill there is 320 M boe or less in storage, or 135 GOM rigs at work - remember those 2 numbers and buy FLC on margin when they occur.... but, for now - buy DO & RIG ''now'' and into weakness here ... go deep ! Looks like the daytraders have puked on MEXP & PGEI to an extent... low volume and a slow bleed ; remember, things happen just when no one expects them too...