Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David who wrote (13690)	5/27/1999 10:04:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

Re: Gilford . . . part 2 . . . As posted on Yahoo, Otis Bradley had this discussion about a digital certificate wannabe that has had a speculative run: "CUSTOM TRACKS INC. "There has been incredible excitement/speculation relative to Custom Tracks (CUST-60)-an Internet start-up venture with a (supposed, albeit highly probable) software security system. We believe any concern that such an "Elixir of Life" product could compete with IDX fingerprint technology UNLIKELY. It might compete in a market or two (but not the many , many markets that will unfold via the Motorola and European partner announcements), but much more likely would be complimentary. "WORST case: For best security, why not have a seat belt AND air bag along with your brakes. Securing initial entry into PC's and leaving an audit trail are every bit as important as transaction security. "BEST case: Someday IDX shares could emulate the excitement of CUST shares-which, without any revenue or even a described technology, let alone product-is selling for a Market Capitalization of almost $1 billion." ================ I find this discussion illuminating of Bradley's point of view. First, I should say that for the last few days I've been monitoring CUST, which has a total of 16 employees (give or take a few), was in an entirely different business until a few months ago, and has announced it is working on a VRSN-like product . . . but doesn't have it out yet. They have no alliances, no sales, and no product. Oh yes -- and no expertise. Nonetheless, its price popped since last year from under $5 per share to a peak of about $90 earlier this week. (It's now at about $58). It has three assets: A CEO well-known for running Blockbuster; about $5 cash per share; and, a price target a few days ago from a completely obscure analyst of $230 per share -- based on Verisign's market cap. (Even VRSN's market cap is generous, but at least they have a real encryption business and a good market position.) CUST is a completely hyped stock. It's not worth anything like $58 per share. It has vaporware. Furthermore, it's not competitive with IDX even if it had what is claims it will have. Authentication and encryption companies have complementary products. So for Bradley to look longingly on CUST as a model for IDX tells you a lot you'd rather not know about him. Apparently, he would like IDX to be hyped to credulous investors. Apparently, he doesn't understand that CUST is a puffball stock with a windstorm coming. Finally, he doesn't even understand where IDX will be competing in the marketplace.