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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: signist who wrote (13741)	5/27/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 42804

Market Watch, May 1999 Global Internet usage to grow, but capacity shortages slow development By 2005, the Internet will support 500 million users worldwide, but more users and capacity shortages still threaten its overall development. These findings are available in a new report from Ovum Inc. (London, UK), an independent telecommunications and information technology analyst group. The report, entitled Internet Market Forecasts: Global Internet Growth 1998-2005, is based on what Ovum describes as a detailed forecasting model that reflects the complex nature of corporate and residential Internet developments and covers aspects of international Internet markets. The report contains a number of key findings. First, the U.S. market is expected to saturate after 2002, and most of the continued global Internet growth will take place in the more developed sections of Asia and Western Europe. Aggregate traffic will increase to more than 6 Tbits/sec by the year 2005. Although there will be major capacity growth, the distribution of traffic patterns will remain about the same. The most important traffic routes in 1998 will still be the most important routes in 2005. Ovum concludes that the international Internet backbone is on the point of collapse. New fiber builds across the Atlantic must progress according to plan to avoid a chronic shortage of capacity to the United States. Such a capacity shortage would result in poor service that could threaten the overall development of the Internet on a global basis. An ability to judge the amount of future corporate bandwidth is extremely important for the long-term success of the Internet as a business tool. Network providers must be able to supply enough capacity to meet the growing amount of Internet protocol-based traffic in corporate networks. During the seven-year forecast period, bandwidth requirements will increase by a factor of 50 to 100 times. The largest increase will initially come from corporate usage. Business-to-business Internet usage will account for about 55% of all bandwidth requirements in the developed world and 66% in the developing world until 2000. The development of ever-faster access devices for consumers will lead to a rapid increase in residential demand for capacity after the millennium. High dial-up subscriber numbers will put tremendous pressure on the network. In Asia, Japan will dominate the Internet with its large number of highly educated users. Although China and India represent major markets as they develop their infrastructures and markets, neither will be significant up to 2005. A key to a carrier's long-term survival online lies in the ability to provide value-added services to users. Internet access revenues from dial-up connection will begin to decline in per-capita and real terms, despite a significant growth in subscriber numbers. Revenues from permanent connection are expected to rise initially but may encounter a decline in per-capita revenues around 2004. The main Internet markets for the next seven years will remain in North America, Western Europe, and developed Asia. The highest growth rates will occur in Eastern Europe and Latin America, driven by the need to catch up with developed Internet markets. These countries will see high growth rates in percentage terms, but low growth in terms of absolute numbers as compared to developed markets. The numbers for Asian Internet growth remain relatively low due to the large number of developing countries in the region. The economies of Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia are much more developed than other Asian economies and should experience high Internet growth. Little shift is expected in the worldwide distribution of Internet users between the regions. Europe will overtake North America by 2005 as the region with the most residential Internet users. North American companies, however, will continue to be the heaviest users of the Internet. The world will be sharply divided into regions of high Internet access rates and regions where Internet usage is limited. The lines follow the demarcations of economic development, meaning that the majority of the world's population will still have no access to the Internet. North America will continue to have the highest Internet penetration over the forecast period, while Africa (with the exception of South Africa), Eastern Europe, and developing Asia will be the least connected areas in the world. The complete report is available from Ovum for $1850. A three-part series of reports on the Internet is available for $3695 and includes this report. For information, call (800) 642-OVUM or go to www.ovum.com.

To: signist who wrote (13741)	5/27/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 42804

A future market MRVC could jump into? Market Watch, April 1999 Optical backplane production and consumption to rise sharply ElectroniCast Corp., a California-based forecasting and consulting company, says the typical number of optical-communications channels that must be connected from one location to another is rapidly expanding. In its new report, Optical Backplane/Motherboard Components Global Market Forecast, ElectroniCast says this growth and future large demand will provide the profit potential to fund the development and marketing of optical backplanes and their supporting components and materials. The optical-communications channels may be in optical fiber, planar optical waveguide, or free space. Typical connections are from optoelectronics on printed wiring boards or cards to other boards on the same or other shelves. Another common optical interconnection is between cabinets of multicabinet equipment, such as digital crossconnect switches. Global consumption of optical backplanes will expand from $6.1 million in 1998 to $1.95 BILLION in 2008. North America will top users with a 79% share in 1998, declining to 65%, or $1.26 billion, by 2008. The North American growth rate will average 66% per year over the 2003-to-2008 span. The global production of optical backplanes will be dominated by rigid backplanes; however, flexible backplanes and motherboards will maintain their strong penetration, holding a 34% share, or $659 million, by 2008. Optical backplanes account for only a minor share of the total value of the communications optical interconnect components market. Currently, there are other, more dominant routes by which the applicable interconnect components migrate to their end use in communications equipment and systems. But as the average cost of optical backplanes drops over the next decade and the backplanes' density, or number of channels, increases, equipment designers will find these interconnect units to be the most cost-effective solution. Secondary advantages will be in space savings and increased reliability provided by backplanes. Optical backplanes and motherboards, says the report, will increasingly displace fiber-optic cables for short interconnects, which accounts for the much more rapid growth of optical backplane consumption value, compared to the forecasted strong growth of overall optical interconnect value. The complete report is available from ElectroniCast for $18,000 by calling Theresa Hosking at (650) 343-1398, fax (650) 343-1698.

To: signist who wrote (13741)	5/27/1999 10:37:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42804

Market Watch, March 1999 International fiber optics use on the rise Annapolis Fiber Optics International (AFOI), a Maryland-based telecommunications market research and consulting firm, has released four new reports on international fiber-optic telecommunications. Each report covers a specific geographical region: Asia/Pacific Rim, Africa/Middle East, Latin America, and Europe. AFOI cites the growing popularity of the Internet, which is doubling every 100 days, as a major challenge faced by the industry. Other significant contributors to fiber's popularity and challenges to a growing industry include combining voice and data, fiber-to-the-home technology, and the introduction of dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM). Until recently, the United States was the only country to actively deploy DWDM. Now, the technology can be seen in Japan, China, Korea, the United Kingdom, Finland, Norway, France, Italy, and many other areas around the globe. According to AFOI, more than 150 million km of fiber, mainly singlemode, will be installed by 2000. Major breakthroughs leading to all-optical networks, terabit speeds, and multiplexing signal a bright future for fiber. It all boils down to a multitude of decisions for today's carriers. They need to know what type of network they want 5 to 10 years down the line, how to fund these networks, and which new technologies best fit the needs of their customers. Predictions are for SONET/SDH and DWDM markets to grow from a combined total of more than $12 billion in 1998 to $28.9 billion in 2003. According to AFOI, the Asia/Pacific Rim will experience the most growth, with China leading the pack. Other exciting regions deploying fiber include South Africa and the surrounding countries. Another country to watch is India, as deregulation and liberalization begin to take shape. India, with its population of 950 million and telephone density of under 5%, will demand the most sophisticated fiber-optic networks. AFOI plans to publish four additional reports in 1999 that will cover North American fiber-optic telecommunications, undersea fiber networks, moving toward the all-optical network, and splicers and splicing techniques. The four regional reports are available from AFOI at a cost of $1195 each or $4500 for the set. For more information or to purchase the reports, contact Katie Moose at (410) 280-5272, fax (410) 263-5380, or e-mail: kaholmes@erols.com.