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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (3094)	5/28/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: j_fir2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Guys? Any chance you want to build in a percentage for the value of the high caliber management, law, and science team we have working for us? I mean, this stock IS still holding around 60 (last I checked) despite, well, everything. Regards, jennifer

To: jeffbas who wrote (3094)	5/28/1999 10:47:00 AM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Jeffrey, I did not use minus 4 for the first two years, in my mind, the $10 cash takes care of that and I did not put the $10 cash in to the PV but I have already diluted the number of shares to 40 millions (a result of raking in that $10). I find it odd that we should be using an oil field analogy to assign a p/e to a pharmaceutical co. The rise and fall has more to do with the revenue from the prozac and claritin deal than anything else. Take that away you will see that the revenue increases with time, unlike oil fields which got depleted. The p/e of 27 I assigned was purposely 10% lower than the 30% assigned by some of the analysts who follow this stock. If we use zero for earning for 1999 and 2000. I still reach a PV of 77 from the $130 expected in 2001. All this is rather speculative as we pile assumptions on assumptions many of which are over kill.(11% margin, no growth in sale at all etc). Change the number a little and you will get a whole different picture. I tried 18% margin following the Mylan model but I am not going to post it or I will be accused of being too optimistic.This is suppose to be a worst case scenario after all. The bottom line is that even if we assume the worst, the worst still looks very decent and the cuurent data suggest SEPR will do uch better than just being decent.

To: jeffbas who wrote (3094)	5/28/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Jeffrey, If you look at SEPR's timeline for NDA's you will see that there is a steady stream of new drugs scheduled for at least the eight years (assuming the schedule doesn't get speeded up by licensing agreements with the existing patent holders). There simply isn't going to be the precipitous drop that you see in Bob's worst case figures. Further, if you really believe that Claritin II and Prozac II sales are going to rapidly dwindle to nothing once the generics enter the picture, then I can think of no better investment than to be short SGP and LLY, as these are far and away their most important products. I think we will see some erosion in market share and pricing, but they will both still remain very significant drugs. Peter