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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Haims who wrote (3694)	5/31/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Tom Hoff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8393

Frank, here is a little more in depth market analysis on the electric bike. In the first eight months of 1997, Japanese bicycle companies built more than twice as many electric bikes as mountain bikes. And, the dollar value of the electric bikes made them a whopping 18% of the total gross sales of bicycles in Japan. That was up 240% over 1996. Current estimates in Japan peg 1997 sales at 225,000 units. China's production numbers are unknown, but rumor has it that 15% of domestic Chinese bicycle production will be electric by 2001, a number which could mean that 5 million EBs in China. Other regions' 1997 sales estimates: Taiwan: 35,000 units; Europe: 15,000 units; U.S. 8,000 units. Total for the world, not including mainland China: 341,000 in 1997. The rate of growth is a classic "hockey stick curve". We only need an average 20% annual rate of growth worldwide to achieve a level of 2 million EB units worldwide by 2003. And a 3 million unit level will be reached if the industry simply achieves an average growth of 50% per year. It is reasonable to predict that EB sales will be 3-4 million units per year within 3-5 years. That is only 10 times this year's production, and the business has yet to get its feet under itself. If only 5% of the current bicycles and scooters in the world become electric, we are looking at an emerging $50 billion industry! ECD would recieve about $2.4 in royalties for every bike that used NIMH batteries.