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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (30697)	5/28/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Jack Kunkle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Yes but average selling prices normally fall. If asp's fall along a normal trend line (I believe that it is 30% for DRAM) then the efficient manufacturers can continue to produce and make money wile still investing to keep up with Moore's law. Jack Kunkle

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (30697)	5/28/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

"Because there's a lag between ASP changes and capex changes of about 6 months. Since the ASP drop has only occurred in the last month or two, it hasn't yet been felt in capex. " This being the case would you be willing to re-examine your thesis if AMAT reports larger bookings, and billing when they report in October? Historically, and scientifically some theories take on a life of their own in spite the evidence at hand. Jerome